Today (Apr. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed with losses in Friday’s trade, and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is closed for Sunday today. Spot soybean meal is steadily down 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday at 2470-2520 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,520, Shandong 2,510-2,520, Jiangsu 2,470-2,500, Dongguan 2,490-2,500, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Soybean arriving at domestic ports may reach 25 mln tn in May to July, as oil mills are buying up on South American crops stimulated by handsome crush margins, but meal consumption is seen lower amid reducing supply in live sows and piglets because it will be more difficult to control the African swine fever entering the summer; hence, oil mills are trying to get gains from hedge oils and meals and making short through selloffs, and this is weighing on meal prices on the DCE. But demand from aquaculture is gradually increasing with temperatures intensifying, and soybean meal itself has recouped some demand losses caused by the ASF due to its five-year low price spread with alternative meal. Moreover, oil mills have almost exhausted their soybean meal stockpiles and are propping up prices for falling soybean oil prices. In the short term, soybean meal will stay in its correction territory, and buyers can wait for the trade talks.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is broadly stable today, of which it settles at 2,100-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,120, stable; Guangdong 2,120, stable; and Fujian not offered). Rapeseed supply may be tightened later as its imports have all been canceled for shipments after this month amid tensions between China and Canada, and this will continue to prop up rapeseed meal market. But its demand is severely cut by its large price spread with soybean meal, making its inventory to increase by 4% to 43,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. Worse still, meal market may turn more negative as China may resume DDGS imports from the United States amid upbeat trade talks. Overall, rapeseed meal will extend its choppy, range-bound trend in the short term, so buyers can buy on immediate requirements.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with some rises amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, higher by 100 yuan from this Friday at 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and higher by 300 yuan at 11,200-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 87,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 25,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market goes up today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content, each up by 40 USD/tonne. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. The Peruvian government has set capture quota at 2.10 mln tn in central-northern regions in A season, 2019, so that local producers have offered higher today amid strong sentiment for price hikes. In addition, there is still price inversion at home and abroad. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market is bullish as holders have received some support. But domestic demand remains tepid, coupled by growing inventory pressure with new cargoes from Peru, so fishmeal market also reacts negatively. Overall, domestic market will keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable with the low operation rates and limited output. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Additionally, it's Monday today and meals on DCE are closed while soybean meal spots are stable with a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All above curb the market of cottonseed meal. Short-term prices are likely to stay stable with fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
