I．National stocks
This week (as of Apr. 26th), edible palm oil stock totals 779,200 tonnes at domestic ports, up 3.6% from 751,900 tonnes last week and up 12,600 tonnes or 1.6% from 704,700 tonnes month on month, and up 74,500 tonnes by 10.6% from 704,700 tonnes year on year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 153,700 tonnes, up 3,100 tonnes by 2% from 150,600 tonnes last week.
The edible palm oil stock this week continues to rise. The Intensive arrivals push up palm oil stock. Moreover, the narrowing of spread between palm oil and soybean oil weighs on palm oil demand. As of this Friday , the spread between palm oil and soybean oil has further narrowed by 5 yuan/tonne from 910 yuan/tonne last week to 905 yuan/tonne, and narrowed by 315 yuan/tonne from 1,220 yuan/tonne on March 6. However, according to our investigation, if the imported margin stays poor amid the poor margin in May results in low purchase activity of China's traders and low May arrivals, the stock in middle and late May is likely to decline. The purchase volume of 24-degree palm oil is less than 100.000 tonnes.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for April this week is unchanged from last week to settle at 530,000-540,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 410,000-420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for May this week declines 70,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 380,000-420,000 tonnes (24-degree 260,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for June is unchanged from last week to settle at 410,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 290,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
