Today (Apr. 30th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean fell overnight as it was under check by bumper South American sales, and meal futures also post losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal follows to drop 10-20 yuan/tonne in weaker trading. Specifically, it is 2480-2530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,510-2,530, Jiangsu 2,480-2,500, Dongguan 2,490-2,500, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Soybean meal demand will be negative later as it becomes more difficult to control the spread of the pig epidemic entering summer, whilst downstream buyers have slowed down their purchases since it will take some time to digest their stockpiles after two months of replenishment. Furthermore, oil mills have raised their utility rate in consideration of growing soybean imports arriving at ports in coming few weeks. However, demand from aquaculture is picking up, and soybean meal has seen demand growth in poultry feedstuff for its five-year small spread with alternative meals, which has partially offset losses caused by the African swine fever. Moreover, its inventory has declined by 11% weekly to 620,000 tonnes so that oil mills are propping up prices, thus making spot price drop less than futures. Short-term soybean meal market will stay in choppy territory withing a limited range. Participants can watch on today’s trade talks, and buyers can wait for steady falls to replenish.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges lower today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan at 2,090-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2090, down 20; Guangdong 2,130, down 10; and Fujian 2,190, down 20). Rapeseed meal demand has suffered a lot as feed factories have increased soybean meal consumption due to their five-year low price spread of 350-400 yuan/tonne, far below a normal gap of 800 yuan/tonne. In addition, soybean import volume will be huge from May to August, and China may resume DDGS imports from the United States amid positive trade talks. But there is no Canadian rapeseed cargo after May, so rapeseed meal market will have limited downward space before a thaw, and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 89,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content higher by 90 USD/tonne at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic holders have received some support from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad; on the other, inventory pressure is intensifying amid tepid demand and new cargoes from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable with the low operation rates and limited output. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Additionally, meals on DCE today fall back and soybean meal spots decline accordingly 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term prices are likely to stay stable with fluctuations in narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.74)
