I．National stocks
This week (as of May 3rd), edible palm oil stock totals 778,500 tonnes at domestic ports, down 0.08% from 779,200 tonnes last week and up 16,600 tonnes or 2.2% from 761,900 tonnes month on month, and up 79,700 tonnes or 11.4% from 698,800 tonnes year on year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 144,600 tonnes, down 9,100 tonnes by 5.9% from 153,700 tonnes last week.
The stock of edible palm oil this week is down a little. However, the narrowing of spread between palm oil and soybean oil weighs on palm oil demand. As of this weekend, the spread between palm oil and soybean oil narrows by 12 yuan/tonne from 905 yuan/tonne last week to 893 yuan/tonne, and narrows by 327 yuan/tonne from 1,220 yuan/tonne on March 6. Additionally, palm oil stock in middle May is very likely to increase as there are shipments in May and June amid good import margins.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II．Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for April this week is unchanged from last week to settle at 530,000-540,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 410,000-420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for May this week is unchanged from last week to settle at 380,000-420,000 tonnes (24-degree 260,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for June is unchanged from last week to settle at 410,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 290,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
