Today (May. 7th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean ended sharply lower in overnight trading upon renewed concerns over trade talks, and meal futures also slow down its rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal follows to increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne in weaker trade, in spite of some replenishment at low prices. Specifically, the price settles at 2,520-2,570 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,570, Shandong 2,540-2,560, Jiangsu 2,500-2,520, Dongguan 2,540-2,550, and Guangxi 2,510-2,540). Soybean meal has seen rises in demand due to its small spread with alternative meals, and the aquaculture has gradually get started. Meanwhile, there is a 10% growth annually in poultry feedstuff, which has partly offset the loss in pig feed. The price is now supported by its stress-free supply. But due to a higher estimate for soybean production in South America and its good crush margins, domestic oil mills are buying up on it with an import volume of around 25 mln tonnes from May to July. Besides, it is getting more difficult to control the African swine fever in summer. So soybean meal will have limited upward potential. Overall, soybean meal market is buoyed to go choppy to rebound moderately by escalating uncertainties in trade relations after U.S. President vowed to raise tariffs from this Friday. Participants can focus on trade talks this Friday.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal posts rises today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan at 2,130-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,140, up 10; Guangdong 2,120, up 20; and Fujian 2,230, up 20). Rapeseed meal market is buoyed by a tight supply outlook of rapeseed whose cargoes have all been canceled due to ongoing tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, and its short-term prices may continue to rebound on renewed trade concerns. But its demand is quite delicate as feed factories have replaced it with soybean meal due to the minor price spread. Besides, Chinese oil mills are buying up on South American soybeans for their good crush margins, sending the import volume to remain huge from May to August. Capped by soybean meal prices, rapeseed meal market will have restricted upward potential, and buyers are suggested not to drive up prices too high.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 91,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 82,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content higher by 90 USD/tonne at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic holders have received some support from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad; on the other, inventory pressure is intensifying amid tepid demand and new cargoes from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 50-120 yuan/tonne, as the operation rates and output are low; today meals on DCE further rise, soybean meal spots accordingly up 10-20 yuan/tonne amid the renewed US-China trade tensions. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The low prices of soybean meal are likely to affect the upward potential for cottonseed meal. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy, and pay attention to the U.S.-China trade talks this Friday as there are uncertainties due to renewed US-China trade tensions on Trump's tariff threats.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
