Today (May. 10th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans continued sharp losses overnight, and meal futures tick higher after low opens yet hover below the previous close on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today as U.S. tariff increase on Chinese goods has already taken effect at 12:00 ET today. Spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-30 yuan/tonne with less trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,590-2,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,650, Shandong 2,610-2,650, Jiangsu 2,590-2,650, Dongguan 2,590-2,640, and Guangxi 2,610-2,620). Oil mills are propping up prices as demand from aquaculture is gradually rising and soybean meal has seen its total trading volume at 1.85 mln tonnes in the first four days this week. But due to a net crush margin above 300 yuan/tonne of South American soybeans, domestic mills have bought at least 15 cargoes for May-July shipments with 5 cargoes signed last night. Besides, it is getting more difficult to control the African swine fever in summer. Therefore, a negative demand outlook may drag down price rises of soybean meal. The current trend depends largely on progress in trade talks. The price will rapidly fall upon a trade deal, but will continue to rally on the contrary. Buyers need to be cautious in case of policy risks.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily posts rises today, of which it settles up 50-60 yuan partially at 2,210-2,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,270, up 10; and Fujian 2,290, stable). China and Canada will be in a stalemate before September if there is not a thaw between Beijing and Washington. And before this, rapeseed meal market will be buoyed by blocked import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed from Canada. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is buoyed by a tight rapeseed supply prospect in July and August. But the price spread between rapeseed meal and soybean meal has narrowed down to a five-year low of 350-400 yuan/tonne, way below a normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, so rapeseed meal has been badly affected. Besides, it is almost impossible to eliminate the influence exerted by the ASF in the short term. Hence, rapeseed meal will have a ceiling in rebounds. Overall, short-term market may be shored up by concerns over trade frictions, but buyers are suggested to remain cautious amid uncertainties.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 93,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 83,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic holders have received some support from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad; on the other, inventory pressure is intensifying amid tepid demand and new cargoes from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today partially rise 30-150 yuan/tonne when the operation rates and output are low; the strong cottonseed provide support for cottonseed meal cost. Besides, as the U.S. tariff increase has taken effect from 12:01 a.m(EDT) today, meals on DCE open low and go up. Concern over trade war props up cottonseed meal market and short-term prices further rebound. However, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The slow trade of new orders are likely to affect the upward potential for cottonseed meal. Buyer could make proper replenishment upon low prices and shouldn't chase high bids too far amid the great uncertainties over trade talks. Buyer should pay attention to the result of the talks.
(USD $1=CNY 6.82)
