Today (May. 9th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods would increase to 25 percent from 10 percent on Friday, and China’s Commerce Ministry said on its website last night that China would have to take necessary countermeasures. Amid the escalation of trade disputes, U.S. soybean closed lower in overnight trading, but soybean meal along with other meal futures post huge rises upon higher opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal follows to increase by 30-60 yuan/tonne, attracting some deals at low cash prices and upon forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2,590-2,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,650, Shandong 2,610-2,640, Jiangsu 2,590-2,630, Dongguan 2,600-2,620, and Guangxi 2,600-2,630). Demand is rising gradually from aquaculture, and soybean meal has substantially replaced alternative meals due to their minor spread, so oil mills are stress-free in terms of stockpiles amid strong trading volume. But this round of rises is mainly buoyed by concerns over trade frictions, and whether it can persist or not will depend largely on trade talks this Friday. The price will rapidly fall upon a trade deal, but will continue to rally on the contrary. Buyers need to be cautious in case of policy risks.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal posts rises today, of which it settles up 50-60 yuan at 2,210-2,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,260; Guangdong 2,260; and Fujian 2,290). Meng Wanzhou is set to appear on the hearing today, where not a decision on whether she will be extradited is made, and her next appearance will be during September 23rd to October 4th. This is a sign that China and Canada will be in a stalemate before September if there is not a thaw between Beijing and Washington. And before this, rapeseed meal market will be buoyed by blocked import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed from Canada. For all this, rapeseed meal demand from feedstuff has been severely cut by its minor spread with soybean meal, coupled by the ongoing ASF, so its any chance of its price actions will have a ceiling. Overall, short-term market may be shored up by concerns over trade frictions, but buyers are suggested to remain cautious amid uncertainties.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with some rises amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, and higher by 100 yuan at 11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 93,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 83,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady with rises today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content higher by 90 USD/tonne at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic holders have received some support from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad; on the other, inventory pressure is intensifying amid tepid demand and new cargoes from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne, as the operation rates and output are low; U.S. plans to increase tariffs on a $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from the current 10% this Friday, and in the dead of night yesterday China’s Commerce Ministry said if the U.S. tariff measures were implemented, China would have to take necessary countermeasures; and thus with the renewed trade tensions worsening, today meals on DCE open higher and surge, and soybean meal spots go up 30-60 yuan/tonne. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The slow trade of new orders affects the upward potential for cottonseed meal currently. Buyers thereby had better make proper replenishment upon low prices rather than chase high bids too far.
(USD $1=CNY 6.81)
