Today (May. 13th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean fell to its ten-year lowest point last Friday upon a bearish report by the USDA and a pending trade deal in trade talks last week, during which the United States officially raised its tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and after which it was seeking to impose additional tariffs the remaining imports valued at $300 billion whose details might be released on Monday today. Meal futures edge down after higher opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), and spot soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-30 yuan/tonne in weaker trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,620-2,660 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,660, Shandong 2,620-2,650, Jiangsu 2,620-2,650, Dongguan 2,620-2,660, and Guangxi 2,610-2,630). Speculators are now seizing the escalation of trade disputes. And soybean meal is reporting strong trading volume due to its growing demand derived from its minor spread with alternative meals and from aquaculture. But downstream buyers are digesting their stockpiles after a round of replenishment. Moreover, meal futures have concluded with large rises on the DCE last week, and oil mills have brought soybean crush high to 1.67 million tonnes last week and possibly to 1.80-1.90 million tonnes in the coming two weeks. Besides, there may be a detente between China and the United States as two Presidents are expected to meet on the G20 Summit in Japan next month. Currently, buyers are suggested not to chase after excessive rises.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily fluctuates today, of which it goes ups and downs by 10-30 yuan to settle at 2,210-2,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,210; Guangdong 2,270, stable; and Fujian 2,290, stable). Rapeseed meal inventories have declined by 14% to 31,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week, and there is no Canadian rapeseed cargo after May, so rapeseed meal market has received some support. But oil mills have gradually picked up their soybean crush and possibly to a level of 1.80-1.90 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks due to profitable South American crops. Besides, rapeseed meal demand has been severely influenced by its minor spread with soybean meal, and the African swine fever will be more difficult to control amid rising temperatures. Overall, rapeseed meal has slowed down its price rises, and may remain choppy, range-bound at high levels. Buyers are suggested not to chase after excessive rises.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with some rises amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced higher by 100-200 yuan at 10,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and by 200 yuan at 10,700 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, steadily at 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 94,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 84,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic quotations keep firm due to stable bidding at foreign market and a tight outlook of ordinary and Thai-level fishmeal at domestic ports; on the other, the market is restricted by low demand and growing inventories at ports. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne, when the operation rates and output are low and a strong cottonseed price provides support for the cost of cottonseed meal. Additionally, The United States and China appeared at a deadlock over trade negotiations last week and U.S. has increased tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods and would impose additional tariffs on the remaining $300 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods. More details would be published on Monday. The heated trade war props up cottonseed meal market and short-term prices keep rebounding. However, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The slow trade of new orders are likely to affect the upward potential for cottonseed meal. Buyer could keep proper stock upon low prices and shouldn't chase high bids too far amid the great uncertainties over trade talks.
(USD $1=CNY 6.83)
