Soybean: The inventory continues to pile up this week amid cargo unloading and arriving, in spite of a rise in crush to 1.67 mln tonnes. On the week as of May 10th, imported soybean inventory is 4,702,000 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 445,400 tonnes by 10.46% from 4,256,600 tonnes last week yet down by 4.25% from 4,911,000 tonnes of the same period last year. The inventory will be mounting higher with continuous shipments arriving at ports in late May to July.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean posted consecutive losses, while meal futures point to huge gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange this week amid a sudden and worse turn in trade talks. Soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly as oil mills are stimulated to make replenishment and take delivery by its price rises of 110-150 yuan/tonne weekly in coastal areas. On the week as of May 10th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 590,700 tonnes, down 66,900 tonnes by 10.17% from 657,600 tonnes last week and down by 51.07% from 1,207,400 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. While soybean crush is likely to increase to 1.85 mln tonnes next week and to 1.90 mln tonnes the following week, downstream buyers will spend some time digesting their stockpiles; hence, soybean meal inventory is expected to slightly decline next week.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills continue to see rises this week. On the week as of May 10th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 4,147,300 tonnes unfinished, up 549,600 tonnes by 15.28% from 3,597,700 tonnes last week yet markedly down by 35.17% from 6,397,900 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
