Today (May. 15th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices completely see rises today. The price prevails at 1,910-2,030 yuan/tonne in Shandong, up by 10-40 yuan/tonne. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L is priced higher by 10-20 yuan at 1,880 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is unchanged at 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690 g/L and moisture 14.5%). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class corn is offered higher at 2,030 yuan/tonne and was traded at 1,980-1,990 yuan/tonne yesterday.
Temporary-reserved corn is scheduled to be auction on May 23rd, with 4 mln tonnes at first round and minimum price raised by 200 yuan/tonne, above the previous estimate of 50-150 yuan/tonne. Corn market now has received strong support and turned bullish. Besides, U.S. President Donald Trump described the dialogue with China as “very good”?and tweeted earlier that the United States would make a deal with China when the “time is right”, and Secretary of Treasure, Steven Mnuchin would likely visit Beijing very soon for more trade talks. But it is unlikely that China will open its grain import for some time amid ongoing trade talks and uncertainties in trade disputes. As domestic farmers have almost sold out their corn stockpiles, traders now tend to raise the price for their high-cost supply. Overall, corn market will extend its upward trend on positive news, and later focus can be put on U.S.-China trade talks and the auctions.
Sorghum:
Imported sorghum prices go up today. (U.S. raw sorghum is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Shanghai, 2,160 in Nantong and not offered for out of stock in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong; Australian sorghum: raw sorghum goes up 70 yuan to 2,200 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, and is unchanged at 2,200 in Shanghai, 2,200 in Qingdao and 2,300 yuan/tonne in Nantong, and dried sorghum goes up 70 yuan to 2,240 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and remains unchanged at 2,300 in Qingdao).
Domestic sorghum prices keep firm today. In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum is not offered for out of stock and dried sorghum is 2,140 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; raw sorghum is 2,040 and dried sorghum 2,160 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum is not offered in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is 2,240 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both 2,100 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is not offered in Baicheng, and raw sorghum and dried sorghum sacks are at 1,900 and 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with freight is 1,940 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; raw sorghum is not offered and dried sorghum with freight is 2,180 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and raw sorghum is 1,900 yuan/tonne and sorghum with freight is 2,040 in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,200 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight are 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices stays stable today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,220 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and and bulk raw sorghum at 2,220 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is priced steadily at 2,120 yuan/tonne and for brewing is 2,180 yuan/tonne in Nantong, and raw sorghum is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Qingdao; French barley: raw barley is not offered in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Sorghum price is now dragged down by weak demand due to continued drops in corn prices. And importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices in view of low barley inventories at ports and stubbornly high cost of Australian barley. Merely, port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitutes. According to Cofeed, by the end of April, 500 enterprises surveyed has a total of 13,736,781 pigs in breeding, a reduction of 112,890 by 0.82% from 13,849,671 month on month. And for the 464 enterprises surveyed, sow number totals 1,292,659 in late April, down 6,864 by 1.29% from 1,309,523 month on month. The African swine fever has roiled the original trend of hog cycle in China, as middle and small farmers withdrew from the market and geared up the elimination of breeding sow stocks since the first outbreak last August, and it has been fiercely cutting the pig number in those provinces reported with more outbreaks. Thus, it will be hard for farmers to rebuild confidence in short time as a fall in live pig and sow stocks has stricken a serious blow at the sector. Given this, grain market will be curbed by its later consumption. In addition, China has bought 65,000 tonnes of US sorghum, the first purchase since August last year. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term, and port sorghum market may be buoyed again by concerns over trade disputes, so participants and focus on the outcome of trade talks.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
