Today (May. 15th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,150 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,400 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. China's soybean market is favourable on traders' optimistic outlook. The supply in Tianjin port is relatively small, while the demand is good. Besides, the US soybean import in the future is likely affected as China and US both increase tariffs on the goods from each other. However, Trump made positive comments on trade talks and said when the time was right US would make a deal with China. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will plan for another trade meeting in China at some point soon, a Treasury spokesman said on Tuesday. Many uncertainties over trade talks as well as the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply, all these still curb China's imported and distributed soybean market. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with strong momentum.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable with some rises of 0.06 yuan/kg with the decreasing cottonseed quantity putting pressure on market supply and the optimistic outlook supporting traders' selling-loath mood. However, the upward potential is likely curbed by low purchase activity of oil mills due to the high price of cottonseed and poor crush margin, some mills mainly using its own stock. Short-term cottonseed is likely to go strong. Buyers can make proper replenishment upon low prices, yet don't chase high bids too far.
Oils:
Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump described the dialogue with China as “very good” and tweeted earlier that the United States would make a deal with China when the “time is right”, and Secretary of Treasure, Steven Mnuchin would likely visit Beijing very soon for more trade talks. Meanwhile, Trump announced that he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Japan late next month, where they might manage to resolve differences. U.S. soybean rallied over 4% in overnight trading contributed to short covering by investors as trade fears eased, and oil futures post moderate gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil are both buoyed by the futures to rise 30-50 yuan/tonne, seeing better trading at low prices. However, under the escalation of trade disputes, oil futures have not seen large rises pressured by growing inventories of soybean oil and palm oil, especially soybean oil as oil mills will raise soybean crush up to a high level in the next two weeks lured by profitable South American crops. Import cost has been growing due to a weaker RMB recently, and China and Canada may stay in a stalemate before September. Meanwhile, China and the United States are still expected to head towards a detente amid their ongoing talks. Overall, oil market may see limited price rises and post frequent fluctuations due to negative fundamentals, and buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment instead of chase after excessive hikes.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,260-5,360 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up by 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,260-5,270, Rizhao 5,290, Zhangjiagang 5,360 and Guangdong 5,290-5,300).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,290-4,350 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,330-4,340, up 40; Rizhao 4,350, up 30; Zhangjiagang 4,320, up 50; Guangzhou 4,290; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil remains stable today, of which it is 7,070-7,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered, and Guangxi 7,300, stable). Rapeseed oil market has few buyers recently as its demand is severely influenced by its enlarging spread with soybean oil and palm oil. Moreover, soybean crush will go up to a very high level in the next two weeks due to handsome crush margins of South American crops. Therefore, rapeseed oil market is dragged down by heavy pressure in its fundamentals including growing inventories of soybean oil and palm oil. But there is no rapeseed cargo after May amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Overall, short-term rapeseed oil price will not slump before a thaw in tensions, and will probably remain high, but buyers can just wait on the sidelines as there may be a detente in trade frictions.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 50-100 yuan/tonne when poor crush margins result in low operation rates and output and a strong cottonseed price provides support for the cost of cottonseed oil. Additionally, Trump made positive comments on trade talks and said when the time was right US would make a deal with China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will plan for another trade meeting in China at some point soon and Trump was planning to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in late June at a Group of 20 leaders summit in Japan, a Treasury spokesman said on Tuesday. As trade fears ease and short covering, today oils on DCE experience a mild rise, and spots soybean oil and palm oil go up 30-50 yuan/tonne, which is good for cottonseed oil market. However, the cottonseed oil market is curbed by the limited cottonseed oil volume for blending, thin turnover of new orders, and high fundamental pressure in oils market. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to stay stable with strong fluctuations and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
