Today (May 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans extended rally in overnight trading, and meal futures also post sharp gains on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal follows to rise 30-70 yuan/tonne, seeing some deals for those with small hikes. Specifically, the price settles at 2,700-2,770 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,770, Shandong 2,720-2,760, Jiangsu 2,710-2,740, Dongguan 2,730-2,740, and Guangxi 2,700-2,730). U.S. farmers have been behind the average pace in soybean seeding. And soybean crush has seen its net margins fall to 220-260 yuan/tonne due to growing import cost under a weaker RMB. Aquaculture has got started gradually, whilst mills have been stress-free in inventory as soybean meal has been trading strongly for its minor spread against alternative meals. Therefore, meal prices in the short term will be buoyed to extend rallies. But mills will significantly pick up their utilization rate, and there is still huge uncertainties in tariff war which may trigger fluctuations by a detente, so buyers had better not be lured by sharp hikes.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal posts huge rises today, of which it settles up 40-70 yuan/tonne at 2,290-2,360 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,290, up 70; Guangdong 2,330, up 60; and Fujian 2,360, up 60). Rapeseed takes on a tight supply outlook as its cargoes from Canada have all been canceled amid diplomatic tensions. And demand from aquaculture is gradually increasing as the summer moves on in south China. Rapeseed meal will be buoyed to continue its rises by concerns over trade war. But its demand has been largely taken away by soybean meal due to minor spread, and mills will raise their utilization rate for soybean crush amid huge global soybean supply. In addition, the U.S.-China trade war still remains as an uncertainty. Meal prices will be dragged down once there is a detente, so buyers had better not be lured by sharp hikes.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 84,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. The market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, domestic holders are supported by stable quotation in foreign market and growing import cost by the devaluation of the RMB; on the other, the market is restricted by low demand and growing inventories at ports. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices up 50-100 yuan/tonne as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; today meals on DCE surge on concerns over US-China trade war, soybean meal spots accordingly up 30-70 yuan/tonne. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Buyer shouldn't chase high bids too far when the trade talks are very uncertain and the tensions may ease at any time.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
