Today (May 17th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean extended rises in overnight session, and meal futures fluctuate to adjust on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily increases by 10-20 yuan/tonnes in weaker trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,710-2,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,780, Shandong 2,740-2,770, Jiangsu 2,720-2,740, Dongguan 2,730-2,740, and Guangxi 2,710-2,740). South American soybean has seen its net crush margins decline to 220-250 yuan/tonne due to its higher prices on worrisome U.S.-China trade relations and higher import cost under a weaker yuan. Aquaculture has got started gradually. Mills have been stress-free in inventory and the market has gained more confidence, since soybean meal has been trading stronger than expected for its minor spread against alternative meals. Therefore, meal price will continue its strong trend before trade concerns ease. But mills will significantly pick up their utilization rate, and meal demand is still checked by the unmanageable African swine fever. In addition, there is still huge uncertainty in tariff war, and the market may get violently choppy upon a thaw. Participants need to be cautious in case of any short-term corrections after consecutive rallies, and buyers can wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily edges higher today, of which it settles at 2,290-2,360 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 20 yuan/tonne partially. (Guangxi 2,290, up 70; Guangdong 2,330, up 60; and Fujian 2,360, up 60). Rapeseed posts a tight supply outlook with only two cargoes left in May and only one in June as its import is blocked by tensions between China and Canada. And demand from aquaculture is gradually increasing with the summer moving on in south China. Rapeseed meal will be buoyed to continue its rises by concerns over trade war. But its demand has been largely taken away by soybean meal due to minor spread, and mills will raise their utilization rate for soybean crush amid huge global soybean supply. As soybean meal prices will see no huge rises and meal prices will be dragged down by any detente in trade disputes, buyers had better not be lured by huge rises.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 84,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic holders are encouraged to prop up prices by stable foreign quotations and growing import cost under a weaker yuan, which is positive to domestic fishmeal market. But the market is still pressured by weak demand and high stockpiles. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; today spots soybean meal are stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Buyer shouldn't chase high bids too far when the trade talks are very uncertain and the tensions may ease at any time.
(USD $1=CNY 6.89)
