Today (May 24th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans fell into the correction territory as farmers would seed more soybeans under a package of subsidies, and meal futures also post losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal declines by 10-30 yuan/tonne in even trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,760-2,830 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,840, Shandong 2,790-2,830, Jiangsu 2,760-2,810, Dongguan 2,780-2,800, and Guangxi 2,760-2,800). Mills are active in powering on their machines for handsome crush margins in South American crops, sending soybean crush high over 1.90 mln tonnes in recent weeks. But later demand for soybean meal may be subject to the African swine fever, which has caused a big cut in breeding pig number. And soybean meal market turns a little muted after days of strong trading. Therefore, soybean meal prices have seen some declines. However, soybean import cost has reached 3,000 yuan/tonne under the tariff war. Mills are stress-free in inventory due to previous good trading under small spread between soybean meal and alternative meals, and traders are still buying meals and selling oils to lock profits. Overall, soybean meal will see no huge loss and may fluctuate to consolidate before the reduction of trade concerns. Buyers can wait for steady falls to make proper replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily fluctuates today, of which it settles at 2,390-2,430 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,390, up 10; Guangdong 2,430, down 20; and Fujian 2,430, down 30). Feed factories have replaced rapeseed meal substantially with soybean meal on account of their narrowing spread. Chinese mills have at least bought 15 cargoes of soybean from South American for good crush margins till this Wednesday, and they have maintained soybean crush high over 1.90 mln tonnes in recent weeks amid adequate supply. And the African swine fever is still spreading. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has come under pressure. However, rapeseed takes on a tight supply outlook in July and August as its import is facing a drag amid tensions between China and Canada, and rapeseed meal inventory has dropped with rising demand from the aquaculture; hence there is limited space for declines. Overall, the market will show narrow and strong fluctuations in coming days, and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 83,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,660 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic holders are encouraged to prop up prices by stable foreign quotations and growing import cost, which is positive to domestic fishmeal market. But the market is still pressured by weak demand and high stockpiles. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-50 yuan/tonne, as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong. However, cottonseed meal market is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Besides, today meals on DCE pare gains, and soybean meal spots drop 10-30 yuan/tonne. Short-term prices are likely to stay stable with some strong fluctuations and buyers had better not chase bids high too far.
(USD $1=CNY 6.91)
