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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China

2019-05-24 www.cofeed.com
      Today (May 24th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
 
      Oilseeds:

      Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,450 yuan/tonne from yesterday, non-GM Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,250 yuan/tonne from yesterday. China's soybean market is favourable on traders' optimistic outlook. The arrivals in China's ports are little, while the demand is good. Besides, The US soybean import is restricted as U.S.-China trade talks suspend. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with strong momentum.

      Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today partially rise 0.02-0.06 yuan/kg due to the decreasing cottonseed quantity putting pressure on market supply and the optimistic outlook supporting traders' selling-loath mood. However, the cottonseed trading is not much as oil mills are reluctant to purchase and some mills mainly use its own stock due to the high price of cottonseed and poor crush margin. Short-term cottonseed is likely to go strong. Buyers thereby had better make proper replenishment upon low prices rather than chase high bids too far.


      Oils: 

      Summary: U.S. soybeans posted another loss last night, as farmers might plant more soybeans under the package of subsidies, in addition to concerns over a slow global economy outlook triggered by trade disputes. Domestically, oil futures slow down declines after two-consecutive-day of huge losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In spot market, soybean oil also narrows down its declines in spite of a partial loss of 10-20 yuan/tonne and palm oil reverses losses to steady, both attracting some purchases at low prices. Crude oil suffered a steep fall over 5% last night. Chinese oil mills are active in buying up on South American soybeans for good crush margins, with at least another 15 cargoes till this Wednesday after 20 cargoes last week. In this case, mills are keeping their utilization rate high, sending soybean crush to a high level over 1.90 mln tonnes. As a result, soybean oil has seen its inventory soaring to 1.45 mln tonnes, coupled with the arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils amid strong trading of soybean meal. In the meantime, domestic importers have bought at least 15 cargoes of palm oil since last week for better import profits. Therefore, oil market has been weighed down by a variety of bearish factors. Overall, short-term pattern of strong meals and weak oils will probably extend, and buyers can wait for steady falls to make replenishment in small batch. 

      Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,160-5,280 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,160-5,170, Rizhao 5,200, and Zhangjiagang 5,280).

      Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 4,290-4,300; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,250, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,300; and Xiamen not offered).

      Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil goes down today, of which it settle down 10-20 yuan at 7,020-7,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7,040, down 10; Guangdong 7,020, down 10; and Guangxi 7,100, stable). Rapeseed posts a tight supply outlook amid tensions between China and Canada, before which rapeseed oil will probably maintain its high price. However, rapeseed oil market has few buyers recently as its demand is severely influenced by its enlarging spread with soybean oil and palm oil. Furthermore, global soybean has an adequate supply, and mills have kept high utilization rate for soybean crush. Hence, rapeseed oil will see its rises limited by pressure from oil fundamentals. Later trend will depend on a thaw in tensions, before which the price will remain high and after which it will take plunge rapidly. Buyers can keep light stockpiles for the moment. 

      Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 100 yuan/tonne for some prices when poor crush margins result in low operation rates and output and a strong cottonseed price provides support for the cost of cottonseed oil. However, the upward potential of cottonseed oil is curbed by the limited cottonseed oil volume for blending, thin turnover of new orders, and high fundamental pressure in oils market. Besides, today oils on DCE further fall back and spots soybean oil further decline 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to remain relatively stable and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.

       (USD $1=CNY 6.91)