Today (May 30th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean continued to close higher on further delays in planting, but meal futures snap off gains to fall after higher opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily decreases by 10-30 yuan/tonne with few deals. Specifically, the price settles at 2,910-3,000 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 3,000, Shandong 2,970-2,980, Jiangsu 2,970-3,000, Dongguan 2,920-2,980, and Guangxi 2,910-2,960).Mills still maintain high utilization rate, and the swine epidemic still wreaks havoc, so that buyers are reluctant to drive up price too high. As a result, soybean meal has seen tepid trading volume and slower shipments after consecutive price rise to a current level. And there seems to be profit taking in futures market. Therefore, soybean meal market has posted a retracement. But there is support from concerns that extremely slow U.S. soybean planting under ongoing rains may lead to a sharp cutback in acreage and harvest yields. Due to lingering speculations on soybean weather, and ongoing trade frictions (which may get some reprieve only after the G20 summit in late June), soybean meal will probably extend its upward trend, and it may post rallies after this retracement. Buyers can wait for steady falls to make proper replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes down today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan at 2490-2,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,490; Guangdong 2,530, down 30; and Fujian 2,530). Feed enterprises have largely turned to soybean meal due to its small price differential with rapeseed meal, and the African swine fever is still spreading, so rapeseed meal market is under pressure. But rapeseed may post a tight supply outlook due to its hindered import by tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, and the aquaculture has been underway; hence, there is little room for the market to fall. In the near term, the market will probably maintain its strong fluctuations. Buyers can take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 96,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 81,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and lower by 50 USD/tonne to 1,610 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Subject to growing import cost under a weaker yuan and ongoing price inversions at home and abroad, domestic fishmeal market has received some support. But further price rises are still pressured by weak demand and high stockpiles. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady to consolidate in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today rise 20-150 yuan/tonne as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; the surge of soybean meal spots yesterday, breaking 2900 yuan/tonne, drive up spots cottonseed meal today. However, ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to go strong as US soybean speculation on weather will continue for the time being and there's no relief in sight for US-China trade wars.
(USD $1=CNY 6.91)
