I.Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. Amid quick delivery pace, the sales market is supported. As the US soybean import later may still be restricted amid no new progress of U.S.-China trade talks, imported and distributed soybean in short run is likely to go up on the traders' optimistic outlook. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market for imported soybean. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
Non-GM, Ukraine
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
-
|
Non-GM, Russia
|
3,530
|
3,450
|
80
|
Non-GM, Canada
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GM, US PNW
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
-
|
GM, US GULF
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
-
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import, US Gulf
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
3594
|
-
|
Average
|
Imported soybean
|
3,530
|
3,530
|
0
|
Crush: Soybean crush is lower than forecast as some mills have reduced their utilization rate for swollen inventories of soybean meal or oil. This week (May 18-24), soybean crush reaches a total of 1,857,700 tonnes (meal 1,467,583 tonnes and oil 352,963 tonnes), a reduction of 77,900 tonnes by 4.02% from 1,935,600 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 52.30% from 54.50% last week. The crush will fall further to around 1.79 mln tonnes next week, but it will return to 1.85 mln tonnes in the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 54,302,715 tonnes, down 2,817,383 tonnes by 4.93% from 57,120,098 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 31,151,315 tonnes, down 1,568,063 tonnes by 4.79% from 32,719,378 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory continues to reduce on small volume into storage and an overall high crush of 1.85 mln tonnes (in spite of a slight decline). On the week as of May 24th, imported soybean inventory is 4,179,600 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 414,500 tonnes by 9.02% from 4,594,100 tonnes last week and down by 22.18% from 5,370,900 tonnes of the same period last year. The inventory decline is likely to be smaller next week as the crush will continue to fall, and it may gradually edge up with large volume arriving at ports from May to July.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 19.5 cargoes with 1.251 mln tonnes this week, and a total of 82.5 cargoes with 5.22 mln tonne for May so far. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 7.238 mln tonne for May shipment, 8.20 mln tonnes for June, 9.30 mln tonnes for July, 9.20 mln tonnes for August, and 8.80 mln tonnes for September. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (May 20-24, 2019), spot soybean meal trend is upward. Specifically, the price is 2,750-2,840 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 30-90 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
2980
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2860-2880
|
2,790-2,800
|
70-80
|
Hebei
|
2,830
|
2,770
|
60
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,900
|
2,810
|
90
|
Henan
|
2,870
|
2,800
|
70
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,810
|
2,720
|
90
|
Jiangsu
|
2,790
|
2,710
|
80
|
Zhejiang
|
2,810
|
2,720
|
90
|
Shanghai
|
2,790
|
2,720
|
70
|
Fujian
|
2,830
|
2,740
|
90
|
Anhui
|
2,830
|
2,760
|
70
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,810
|
2,730
|
80
|
Guangxi
|
2,750
|
2,700
|
50
|
National average
|
2,818
|
2,738
|
80
|
Inventory: The stockpiles have slightly declined for a cut in soybean crush. On the week as of May 24th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 612,800 tonnes, down 3,800 tonnes by 0.62% from 616,600 tonnes last week and down by 46.99% from 1,156,100 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. While soybean crush is likely to fall to arounf 1.80 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal inventory is expected to remain little changed as downstream buyers are still digesting their replenishment.
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (May 20-24, 2019), China's soybean oil is stagnant and down again. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,160-5,280 yuan/tonne, down100-190 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5160-5170
|
5310-5320
|
-150
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,200
|
5,340
|
-140
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,280
|
5,420
|
-140
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,210
|
5,350
|
-140
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,230
|
5,350
|
-120
|
Inventory: The inventory has declined fractionally this week. On the week as of May 24th, the inventory has totaled 1,445,400 tonnes, down 4,000 tonnes by 0.28% from 1,449,400 tonnes last week, yet up 59,900 tonnes by 4.32% from 1,385,500 tonnes month-on-month, and up 130,400 tonnes by 9.92% from 1,315,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,077,700 tonnes.
