I. Soybean
Price: This week, imported soybean rises. Specifically, imported soybean at Shandong port is still not offered. And at Tianjing port, US soybean from Northwest Pacific, US soybean from Mexico Bay, and Canadian soybean are not offered, and Russian soybean rises by 50 yuan/tonne from last week at 3,450 yuan/tonne, Kazakhstan soybean is at 4,230 yuan/tonne.
Crush: Domestic mills have sharply picked up utilization rate as they are trying to power on all their production lines for handsome crush margins in South American crops. This week, soybean crush totals 1,935,600 tonnes (meal 1,529,124 tonnes and oil 367,764 tonnes), an increment of 264,400 tonnes by 15.82% from 1,671,200 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has increased by 7.45 percentage points to 54.50% from 47.05% last week. The utilization rate will remain high in the coming two weeks, so soybean crush may increase to 1.94 mln tonnes next week and to 1.99 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 52,445,015 tonnes, down 3,024,633 tonnes by 5.45% from 55,469,648 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 29,293,615 tonnes, down 1,775,313 tonnes by 5.71% from 31,068,928 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory sees a decline this week amid another big pickup in crush to 1.93 mln tonnes, but the decline is small with ongoing arrivals of cargoes at ports. On the week as of May 17th, imported soybean inventory is 4,594,100 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 107,900 tonnes by 2.29% from 4,702,000 tonnes last week and down by 10.90% from 5,156,300 tonnes of the same period last year. The inventory will be mounting higher with continuous shipments arriving at ports from May to July.
Import Outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 7.238 mln tonne for May shipment at domestic ports, 8.50 mln tonnes for June, 9.30 mln tonnes for July, 9.20 mln tonnes for August, and 8.80 mln tonnes for September. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II. Soybean Meal
Price: This week, soybean meal spots further rise. Specifically, the price is 2,710-2,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 70-130 yuan/tonne from last week.
Inventory: The inventory has increased this week for its growing output under a sharp rally in soybean crush. On the week as of May 17th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 616,600 tonnes, up 25,900 tonnes by 4.38% from 590,700 tonnes last week yet down by 46.44% from 1,151,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. While soybean crush is likely to hit above 1.90 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, downstream buyers will spend some time digesting their stockpiles; hence, soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to increase next week.
III. Soybean Oil
Price: This week, China's soybean oil rebounds in second consecutive week. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,280-5,400 yuan/tonne, and its variety is 30-80 yuan/tonne.
Inventory: The inventory sees an obvious rise this week. As of May 17th, soybean oil inventory has totaled 1,449,400 tonnes, up 52,800 tonnes by 3.78% from 1,396,600 tonnes last week, up 90,500 tonnes by 6.66% from 1,358,900 tonnes month-on-month, and up 159,400 tonnes by 12.36% from 1,305,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,053,100 tonnes.
