Today (Jun. 10th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans closed lower on favorable weather conditions, and meal futures continue to drop on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot basis bids for soybean meal decline by 20-100 yuan/tonne in light trading, of which Yihai factories have lowered down their prices by 70-100 yuan/tonne from their relatively high levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2,850-2,930 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,930, Shandong 2,880-2,930, Jiangsu 2,870-2,920, Dongguan 2,850-2,880, and Guangxi 2,850-2,880). The soybeans in Argentina are 96% harvested, and global supply is thus enlarged by bumper crops in South America. Downstream buyers remain cautious at current prices as they have made adequate replenishment in previous weeks. Amid its light trading, short-term soybean meal extends its price declines. But weather condition may turn negative again for U.S. soybeans, coupled by low soybean meal inventories, so traders are suggested not to go short before the end of weather speculations, and buyers can make some replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal drops today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan at 2,450-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,450, down 30; Guangdong 2,520, down 30; and Fujian 2,470, down 30). The price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal has narrowed down to a five-year low of 350-400 yuan/tonne, far below a normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, and this has severely affected the demand for the former. Besides, it will be less likely to eliminate the influence brought by the African swine fever, and soybean crush will remain at a high level as its supply will be not a problem at all in the next two to three months. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is under pressure. However, rapeseed supply may get tightened in July and August as its import is hindered by tensions between China and Canada. And the demand from aquaculture is rising, helping rapeseed meal stockpiles fall by 12% to 33,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. Hence, rapeseed meal will seek little space for price declines and may maintain its strong trend. Buyers can wait for steady falls to make proper replenishment on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady with some room for negotiation amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,610 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market has received some support from steady quotations abroad and ongoing price inversions at home and abroad, but the price is still pressured by weak demand and huge inventory at ports. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some weak fluctuations of 50-80 yuan/tonne when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow; today meals on DCE further fall back and soybean meal spot declines 20-100 yuan/tonne due to improving weather. However, some support comes from the following situations that the operation rates and output are low on barley harvest; cottonseed price is strong. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate weakly and buyers can maintain wait-and-see attitudes for now.
(USD $1=CNY 6.91)
