Today (Jun. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans inched higher in overnight trading,and meal futures post slight fluctuations on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot basis bids for soybean meal steadily increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne with some deals at low prices. Specifically, the price settles at 2,860-2,930 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,930, Shandong 2,900-2,920, Jiangsu 2,860-2,920, Dongguan 2,850-2,860, and Guangxi 2,840-2,860). U.S. soybean crop was 60% planted as of June 9th compared to 92% last year and 88% for the 5-year average, which helped boost soybean to edge higher. Domestically, soybean meal inventory has dropped by 30% from a year earlier to peg at 736,000 tonnes, in spite of a 14% increment from last week, so mills are under no pressure. However, soybean supply will be out of question as mills are scooping up on lucrative South American soybeans, whilst the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. Furthermore, downstream buyers are now consuming their stockpiles after a round of replenishment, and meal shipment is also subject to plum rain season in South China. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, soybean meal market turns to trade sideways. The weather speculation on U.S. soybeans is yet to complete, buyers are suggested not to go short, but to make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in driving prices up.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges down today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,450-2,510 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,450; Guangdong 2,510, down 10; and Fujian 2,480). The price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal has narrowed down to a five-year low of 350-400 yuan/tonne, far below a normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, and this has severely affected the demand for the former. Besides, it will be less likely to eliminate the influence brought by the African swine fever, and soybean crush will remain at a high level as its supply will be not a problem at all in the next two to three months. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is under pressure. However, rapeseed supply may get tightened in July and August as its import is hindered by tensions between China and Canada. And the demand from aquaculture is rising, helping rapeseed meal stockpiles fall by 12% to 33,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. Hence, rapeseed meal will seek little space for price declines and may maintain its strong trend. Buyers can wait for steady falls to make proper replenishment on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady with some room for negotiation amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 99,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,610 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market has received some support from steady quotations abroad and ongoing price inversions at home and abroad, but the price is still pressured by tepid demand and the huge inventory of 223,000 tonnes at ports. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 30 yuan/tonne for some prices when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. However, some support comes from the following situations that the operation rates and output are low on barley harvest; cottonseed price is strong; today spots soybean meal are stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate weakly and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy for the moment.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
