Today (Jun. 13th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures jumped higher as rains forecast in the coming week threatened to further delay soy plantings and put late crop yields at risk of summer high temperatures or autumn early frosts, and trader were inclined to cover their record net short positions. Meal futures also post huge gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal go up by 40-70 yuan/tonne with some trading at low prices. Specifically, the price settles at 2,900-2,980 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 3,000, Shandong 2,950-2,980, Jiangsu 2,900-2,960, Dongguan 2,900-2,920, and Guangxi 2,890-2,900). Domestic mills are scooping up on lucrative South American crops, so mills will keep high utilization rate under sufficient soybean supply in coming two to three months. Meanwhile, the African swine fever will remain as a curb on later demand as data from China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs showed a monthly decline of 4.2% and an annual decline of 23% in breeding hog amount in May. Soybean meal has already been in slow trading as downstream buyers are digesting their inventories. Buyers remain cautious in driving up prices, so that spot gains are smaller than futures. Short-term meal prices will post further rises as bad weather conditions for U.S. soybeans make a comeback, but may be forced to fall as the bull book profit taking with the coming of the G20 summit late this month. Buyers are suggested to keep safety inventory on the dips, but not to drive up prices too high.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it settles up 50-70 yuan at 2,510-2,580 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,510, up 50; Guangdong 2,580, up 60; and Fujian 2,560). Better trading has been recovered in rapeseed meal market with the start of the aquaculture, while rapeseed supply may get tightened as its import is still blocked by tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is buoyed by trade concerns, sending short-term prices to recover rises. However, domestic mills are scooping up on lucrative South American crops, so soybean crush will stay stubbornly high later. And buyers still remain cautious due to the impact of the African swine fever. Hence, there will be limited space for price rises, and buyers are suggested not to drive up prices excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady with some room for negotiation amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,610 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market remains positive due to steady quotations abroad and ongoing price inversions at home and abroad, in addition that holders are supported to keep quotations steady by import cost, but the price is still pressured by slow inventory consumption under tepid demand and the huge inventory of 224,000 tonnes at ports. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable as the operation rates and output are low on barley harvest; cottonseed price is strong; today meals on DCE surge, spot soybean meal up 40-70 yuan/tonne when weather speculation restarts, and the trend for short covering is strong on a record high net short, because according to weather forecast, a heavy rain in US in upcoming week may result in further delay of planting progress, and even a disaster for late-sowing soybean, which may suffer from summer's high temperature and autumn's early frost. However, cottonseed meal market is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate greatly and buyers can maintain proper inventory upon low prices, but not chase bids high too far.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
