Today (Jun. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean continued to jump higher in overnight trading as more rains are still forecast in the Midwest in the next two weeks. Its planting was 77% finished on the week as of June 16th, lagging the average market estimate of 79%, the completion of 96% a year earlier and the five-year average of 93%. Meal futures snap off gains to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today for the dismal trading under delicate demand. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily edge down by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading Specifically, the price settles at 2,900-3,000 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 3,000, Shandong 2,960-2,970, Jiangsu 2,950-3,000, Dongguan 2,900-2,980, and Guangxi 2,900-2,950). Downstream buyers remain cautious on a bumper supply outlook of soybeans and current prices of soybean meal. But the wet weather for U.S. soybeans will provide more support for meal futures. Besides, soybean meal has seen a decline of 31% to 760,000 tonnes in inventory from a year earlier, in spite of a 3% increase weekly, so there is no pressure in terms of inventory. As unfavorable weather conditions continue, soybean meal will have little space for downside and will probably inch higher. Buyers can wait for steady price declines to make appropriate replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is traded lower today, of which it settles down 40-50 yuan at 2,540-2,610 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,540; Guangdong 2,610, down 40; and Fujian 2,560, down 40). Feed factories have turned to employ a substantial amount of soybean meal due to its small price spread with rapeseed meal, and soybean crush will return higher to 1.80 mln tonnes in the next two weeks for adequate stockpiles. Besides, the African swine fever is still spreading. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has come under pressure. But rapeseed points to a tight supply outlook as its import is impeded by tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, and rapeseed meal inventory has thus kept falling. In addition, the demand from aquaculture has been increasing. So there will be limited space for price declines. Overall, the market is predicted to post fluctuations to consolidate in the short term, and buyers can wait from steady prices to replenish in small batch.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady with some room for negotiation amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,400-10,500 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,400-11,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,610 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal remains positive due to stable quotations abroad and price inversions at home and abroad; on the other, it is also kept under check subdued demand, tepid shipments at ports and slow inventory (224,000 tonnes at ports so far) consumption. Overall, fishmeal market will probably keep steady in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable as the operation rates and output are low on barley harvest and poor margins; cottonseed price is strong; and US soybean is going up on weather speculation. However, cottonseed meal market is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Besides, today meals on DCE fall back from early rise and spot soybean meal is stable with a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All these are negative to cottonseed meal market. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.93)
