Today (Jun. 20th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower in overnight trading, weighed down by profit taking and a dry weather outlook in the Midwest forecast by a weather agency, and meal futures extend losses at a slower pace on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily edge down by 10-20 yuan/tonne, with 40 yuan/tonne among Yihai factories, in tepid trading Specifically, the price settles at 2,820-2,920 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,920, Shandong 2,870-2,910, Jiangsu 2,850-2,880, Dongguan 2,820-2,860, and Guangxi 2,820-2,860). U.S. Trade Representative would be speaking with a Chinese Vice Premier ahead of a meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg said in a report. The hope for the relationship improvement is bearish to domestic meal prices. And the African swine fever still lingers as a curb on later demand for meals. Therefore, soybean meal is dragged down to have further corrections. But most meteorological agencies still forecast more rains in the United States and it is still to early to expect any yield in trade talks, so meal prices will rally on another worry on weather or bad outcome in talks. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is basically stable today, of which it settles at 2,500-2,560 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,560, stable ; and Fujian 2,510, stable ). The small price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has made the former much more attractive to feed mills. Moreover, soybean crush still stays at a high level amid huge volume arriving at ports. And the African swine fever keeps lingering. Therefore, buyers for rapeseed meal are relatively cautious. But given great uncertainties in U.S.-China trade talks and prolonged stalemate between China and Canada, rapeseed will point to a tight supply outlook in the second half of July. And the aquaculture has gradually got started, in addition to the weather speculation on U.S. soybeans. So rapeseed meal market will continue to receive some support. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal will see little chance for big losses and may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can wait on the sidelines or take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are unchanged with some room for negotiation amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,300-11,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 100,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market receives some support from flat quotation at foreign market and price inversion at home and abroad, but it is also restricted by high stockpiles and tepid shipments at ports amid delicate demand as the recovery of aquaculture is subject to heavy rainfalls in South China. Overall, fishmeal market will keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; the trading of new order for cottonseed meal is slow. Besides, today meals on DCE fall further and spot soybean meals are stable with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne on the news that the teams for trade talks will speak to each other prior to the meeting of Chinese and American leaders at the end of this month. However, the decline will be limited by low operation rate and output as well as strong cottonseed price. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to move sideways weakly and buyers can stay on the sideline for the present and make proper replenishment upon low and stable prices.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
