Today (Jun. 27th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. President Donald Trump said an additional tariff of 10% would be placed on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports if there was no progress after his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping this Saturday, according to a report by Bloomberg. Therefore, it is still early to expect a trade deal in the talks. Meal futures see a slowdown in declines and fluctuate to inch higher in morning trade, but edge down at the opening of afternoon session on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,810-2,910 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,910, Shandong 2,860-2,880, Jiangsu 2,860-2,870, Dongguan 2,820-2,830, and Guangxi 2,820-2,850). Short-term U.S. soybean futures are weighed down due to a favorable outlook for soybean planting and emerging, as drier weather is forecast to return to the Midwest in coming ten days. Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, is expected to be allowed to enter China’s market in August, said in a report by Bloomberg. In addition, soybean shipments received at port is estimated at 2.94 mln tonnes in the third quarter; hence, mills will pick up their utilization rate on account of huge supply. Meanwhile, the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. As a result, soybean meal inventory has been climbing higher amid tepid trading in the past few weeks. Overall, soybean meal will remain range-bound and choppy in the short run. Buyers can focus on the meeting between the two presidents and the soybean planting acreage in the report of USDA on Saturday.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily fluctuates today, of which it fluctuates by 10 yuan partially at 2,570-2,630 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,630, stable; and Fujian 2,620, stable). Rapeseed meal has seen a decline in inventory as aquaculture is in season in South China and rapeseed crush has been falling. Moreover, rapeseed supply heads for a tight outlook in the second half of July since it is not expected that China and Canada will make up in the short run. These will help shore up rapeseed meal market. But feed mills have replaced rapeseed meal substantially with soybean meal due to their drastically narrower price gap, and soybean crush still maintains at a high level due to its huge import in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. Therefore, there is limited upward potential for rapeseed meal prices. Buyers are suggested not to drive up prices higher, but to wait for the meeting between the two presidents and the soybean planting acreage in the report of USDA on Saturday.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are flat today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,100-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,800-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 102,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 21,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and down by 20 USD at 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Fishmeal is piling up at ports due to limited demand from aquaculture amid the strong rainfalls in South China, in addition to the African swine fever, so the market turns bearish. But there is still some support from price inversions at home and abroad. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, fishmeal market will keep steady to decline slightly in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some drops of 20-30 yuan/tonne, when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; demand in downstream is not good. However, the price adjustment is restricted as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; demand from aquatic farming in some region is good and trading of new orders turns better. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate narrowly, and buyers can stay on the sideline for the present. As there is an uncertainty over trade talks for President Donald Trump said 10% additional U.S. tariffs would be placed on $300 billion goods from China if there’s no progress on a trade deal after the meeting on Saturday, according to Bloomberg, and buyers should wait for the news of the meeting between two heads of state.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
