Today (Jun. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell further in overnight trading on favorable weather, and meal futures are in range-bound state on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,810-2,900 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,900, Shandong 2,850-2,860, Jiangsu 2,850-2,870, Dongguan 2,810-2,820, and Guangxi 2,820-2,850). The weather will take on a drier outlook in U.S. soybean planting belt, and Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, is expected to be allowed to enter China’s market in August. Besides, soybean cargoes received at port are estimated at 2.94 mln tonnes in the third quarter; hence, mills will pick up their utilization rate on huge supply. Meanwhile, the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. As a result, soybean meal inventory has been climbing higher amid tepid trading in the past few weeks. Therefore, soybean meal market is weighed down. But the market will not collapse due to the capricious weather conditions in U.S. crop plating belt and huge uncertainties in the trade talks. Generally, short-term soybean meal market will likely extend its range-bound trend, and participant can focus on the meeting between the two presidents this Saturday and the soybean planting acreage in the report of USDA early Saturday morning.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily fluctuates today, of which it fluctuates by 10-30 yuan at 2,600-2,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,640, up 10; and Fujian 2,630, up 10). Rapeseed meal has seen a further decline in inventory as aquaculture is underway in South China and rapeseed crush has been falling. Moreover, rapeseed supply heads for a tight outlook in the second half of July since it is not expected that China and Canada will make up in the short run. These will help shore up rapeseed meal market. Soybean volume received at port is estimated at 2.94 mln tonnes in the third quarter; hence, mills will pick up their utilization rate on account of huge supply. And buyers are cautious as the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. Therefore, there will be limited upward impetus for the prices. Market participants can focus on the meeting between the two presidents this Saturday and the soybean planting acreage in the report of USDA early Saturday morning.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are flat today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,100-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,800-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 102,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 22,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,560 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. Aquaculture is coming back at a slow pace in South China subject to the strong rainfalls, couples with the African swine fever, so the demand for fishmeal is delicate. As a result, import volume is larger than shipment, sending the inventory to keep growing. This is bearish to domestic fishmeal market. But there is still some support from price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to hold steady to decline slightly in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; demand from aquatic farming in some region is good and trading of new orders turns better. However, cottonseed meal market is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and demand in downstream is not good. Besides, today spot soybean meal is stable with a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All these are negative to cottonseed meal market. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, waiting for the news about U.S.-China leaders' meeting on Saturday Morning.
(USD $1=CNY 6.86)
