I. Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. Amid quick delivery pace, even no inventory for some countries' soybean, the sales market is supported. As the US soybean import later may still be restricted amid an uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks, imported and distributed soybean in short run is likely to go up on the traders' optimistic outlook. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market for imported soybean. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
Non-GM, Ukraine
|
4250
|
Uq
|
-
|
Non-GM, Russia
|
-
|
3,530
|
-
|
Non-GM, Canada
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GM, US PNW
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
-
|
GM, US GULF
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
-
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import, US Gulf
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Average
|
Imported soybean
|
3,530
|
3,530
|
0
|
Crush: Amid a further drop in utilization rate for soybean shortage and monthly maintenance, soybean crush reaches a total of 1,766,200 tonnes (meal 1,395,298 tonnes and oil 335,578 tonnes), a reduction of 91,500 tonnes by 4.92% from 1,857,700 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 49.73% from 52.30% last week. The crush will return to a level of 1.85 mln tonnes next week and to 1.83 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 56,068,915 tonnes, down 2,680,283 tonnes by 4.56% from 58,749,198 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 32,917,515 tonnes, down 1,430,963 tonnes by 4.16% from 34,348,478 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory has seen a slight increment this week contributed to another fall in its crush to 1.76 mln tonnes. On the week as of May 31st, imported soybean inventory is 4,346,800 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 167,200 tonnes by 4.00% from 4,179,600 tonnes last week yet down by 25.00% from 5,796,500 tonnes of the same period last year. With ongoing arrivals of soybean at ports, the inventory likely continues to rise later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 26 cargoes with 1.659 mln tonnes this week, a total of 110 cargoes with 7.029 mln tonne for May so far. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 8.335 mln tonne for June shipment, 9.30 mln tonnes for July, 9.20 mln tonnes for August, and 8.80 mln tonnes for September. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
Customs Data: China imported 7.64 mln tonnes of soybeans in April, up 55% from 4.92 mln tonnes last month and up 10.7% from 6.90 mln tonnes a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday. Some imported soybean cargoes was postponed to April due to a value-added tax cut on agricultural products from April 1st, most of which were from Brazil. For the first months in 2019, China has imported a total of 24.39 mln tonnes of soybeans, down 7.9% of the corresponding period a year earlier.
II. Soybean Meal
Price: This week (May 27-31, 2019), spot soybean meal surges. Specifically, the price is 2900-3000 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 100-190 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
3030
|
2980
|
50
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2910-2920
|
2860-2880
|
50-40
|
Hebei
|
2,900
|
2,830
|
70
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,950
|
2,900
|
50
|
Henan
|
2,960
|
2,870
|
90
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2880-2890
|
2,810
|
70-80
|
Jiangsu
|
2,870
|
2,790
|
80
|
Zhejiang
|
2,860
|
2,810
|
50
|
Shanghai
|
2,870
|
2,790
|
80
|
Fujian
|
2,870
|
2,830
|
40
|
Anhui
|
2,920
|
2,830
|
90
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,870
|
2,810
|
60
|
Guangxi
|
2,830
|
2,750
|
80
|
National average
|
2,883
|
2,818
|
65
|
Inventory: The stockpiles have increased fractionally this week on low trading volume as downstream buyers show lower enthusiasm, although soybean crush has seen another fall. On the week as of May 31st, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 640,900 tonnes, up 28,100 tonnes by 4.59% from 612,800 tonnes last week yet down by 41.76% from 1,100,600 tonnes a year earlier. As soybean crush will return to around 1.85 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal stockpiles will increase even further.
Customs Data:
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (May 27-31, 2019), China's soybean oil stops declining and rebounds again. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5270-5400 yuan/tonne, and its variety is 40-130 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5270-5280
|
5160-5170
|
110
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,300
|
5,200
|
100
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,400
|
5,280
|
120
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,350
|
5,210
|
140
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,330
|
5,230
|
100
|
Inventory: Soybean oil inventory has further fallen upon declining utilization rate. On the week as of May 31st, the inventory has totaled 1,407,500 tonnes, down 37,900 tonnes by 2.62% from 1,445,400 tonnes last week, yet up 17,500 tonnes by 1.26% from 1,390,000 tonnes month-on-month, and up 79,000 tonnes by 5.95% from 1,328,500 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,084,400 tonnes.
Customs data:
