I.Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. Amid quick delivery pace, the sales market is supported. As the US soybean import later may still be restricted amid an uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks when China has placed additional tariffs on the 60 billion US goods and the time of additional tariffs on some Chinese goods by US is delayed to June 15, imported and distributed soybean in short run is likely to go up on the traders' optimistic outlook. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market for imported soybean. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Import,Ukraine
|
Uq
|
Uq
|
|
Import,Canada
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import,Russia
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
4330
|
4250
|
80
|
Import,Myanmar
|
4370
|
4330
|
40
|
Crush: This week (June 1st-7th), mills have fractionally recovered their utilization rate, which is still smaller than forecast due to soybean shortage and machine maintenance, so soybean crush reaches a total of ,1778,800 tonnes (meal 1,405,252 tonnes and oil 337,972 tonnes), an increment of 12,600 tonnes by 0.71% from 1,766,200 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has increased by 0.45 percentage points to 50.18% from 49.73% last week. The crush will decline to around 1.70 mln tonnes next week, but will return to 1.80 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 57,847,715 tonnes, down2,552,833 tonnes by 4.22% from 60,400,548 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 34,696,315 tonnes, down 1,303,513 tonnes by 3.62% from 35,999,828 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory has seen a slight decline this week due to its rising crush of 1.77 mln tonnes and small volume arriving at port at the beginning of a month. On the week as of June 7th, imported soybean inventory is 4,285,000 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 61,800 tonnes by 1.42% from 4,346,800 tonnes last week and down by 28.72% from 6,011,900 tonnes of the same period last year. With ongoing arrivals of soybean at ports, the inventory likely continues to rise later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 17 cargoes with 1.097 mln tonnes this week. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 8.335 mln tonne for June shipment, 9.50 mln tonnes for July, 9.10 mln tonnes for August, 9.60 mln tonnes for September, and 9.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (June 3-6, 2019), spot soybean meal trend is up at the beginning and then down. As of this Thursday, the price is 2880-3000 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating 10-50 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
3080
|
3030
|
50
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
3000
|
2910-2920
|
90-80
|
Hebei
|
3,030
|
2,900
|
130
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
3,040
|
2,950
|
90
|
Henan
|
3,060
|
2,960
|
100
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,900
|
2880-2890
|
20-10
|
Jiangsu
|
2,950
|
2,870
|
80
|
Zhejiang
|
2,920
|
2,860
|
60
|
Shanghai
|
2,920
|
2,870
|
50
|
Fujian
|
2,970
|
2,870
|
100
|
Anhui
|
2,990
|
2,920
|
70
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,870
|
2,870
|
0
|
Guangxi
|
2,880
|
2,830
|
50
|
National average
|
2,930
|
2,883
|
47
|
Inventory: The utilization rate for soybean has fractionally recovered, but downstream buyers are not in a hurry to purchase due to the price falls after rises of meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and in soybean meal spot market. As of this Thursday, the trading volume is pegged at 576,900 tonnes, a decline of 25.16% from 770,800 tonnes last week, so the inventory continues to increase this week. On the week as of June 7th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 736,100 tonnes, up 95,200 tonnes by 14.85% from 640,900 tonnes last week yet down by 30.41% from 1,057,900 tonnes a year earlier. The inventory will likely keep rising next week as downstream buyers are not busy purchasing, although soybean crush will fall to around 1.70 mln tonnes.
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (June 3-6, 2019), China's soybean oil fall back again. As of this Thursday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas is 5230-5370 yuan/tonne, down 20-90 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5210-5220
|
5270-5280
|
-60
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,200
|
5,300
|
-100
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,370
|
5,400
|
-30
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,300
|
5,350
|
-50
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,280
|
5,330
|
-50
|
Inventory: Soybean oil inventory has reversed to increase this week. On the week as of June 7th, the inventory has totaled 1,442,900 tonnes, up 35,400 tonnes by 2.52% from 1,407,500 tonnes last week, up 43,700 tonnes by 3.12% from 1,399,200 tonnes month-on-month, and up 92,900 tonnes by 6.88% from 1,350,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,104,600 tonnes.
