I.Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. Amid quick delivery pace, the sales market is supported. The US-China trade relationship is expected to improve amid a telephone conversation by leaders of China and the United States has confirmed a meeting between the two leaders during the upcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit. And chief trade negotiators of China and the United States will communicate in line with the instructions made by the two heads of state. However, US soybean import is still restricted ahead of an agreement made by the two parties, and imported soybean in the short run is likely to go strong on the traders' mindset for higher offers. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Import,Canada
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
-
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
4470
|
4470
|
0
|
Import,Uruguay
|
4370
|
Uq
|
-
|
Crush: As mills have picked up their utilization rate, soybean crush reaches a total of 1,792,400 tonnes (meal 1,415,996 tonnes and oil 340,556 tonnes), an increase of 66,220 tonnes by 3.83% from 1,726,200 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has gone up by 1.85 percentage points to 50.17% from 48.32% last week. The crush is predicted to fall to around 1.75 mln tonnes for machine maintenance and swollen inventories of soybean oil and meal next week, but will return to around 1.82 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 61,366,315 tonnes, down 2,545,833 tonnes by 3.98% from 63,912,148 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 38,214,915 tonnes, down 1,296,513 tonnes by 3.28% from 39,511,428 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: According to statistics surveyed by Cofeed, soybean stockpiles have been piling up fractionally due to huge imports. On the week as of June 21st, imported soybean inventory is 4,480,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 216,100 tonnes by 5.07% from 4,264,100 tonnes last week yet down by 28.09% from 6,231,100 tonnes of the same period last year. With ongoing arrivals of soybean at ports in the third quarter, the inventory likely continues to rise later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 29 cargoes with 1.817 mln tonnes this week, a total of 79 cargoes with 5.007 mln tonne for June so far. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 8.335 mln tonne for June shipment, 9.60 mln tonnes for July, 9.80 mln tonnes for August, 10.0 mln tonnes for September, and 8.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
Customs Data: China imported 7.36 mln tonnes of soybeans in March, down 280,000 by 3.66% from 7.64 mln tonnes last month and down 2.325 mln tonnes by 24.01% from 9.685 mln tonnes of the same month a year earlier, customs data showed.
Unit: 0'000 tonnes, USD/tonne
Country
|
2019 May
|
2019 Apr
|
M-O-M
|
Y-O-Y
|
Brazil
|
630.25
|
578.57
|
51.68
|
-282.10
|
Canada
|
0.06
|
7.18
|
-7.12
|
3.56
|
USA
|
97.7
|
175.49
|
-77.79
|
48.75
|
Russia Fed
|
3.78
|
2.54
|
1.24
|
0.48
|
Kazakhstan
|
0.46
|
0.18
|
0.28
|
0.16
|
Ethiopia
|
0
|
0
|
-0.04
|
-0.19
|
Ukraine
|
0.02
|
-
|
-
|
0.02
|
Uruguay
|
3.93
|
-
|
3.93
|
3.93
|
Total Qty.
|
736.2
|
764.0
|
-27.8
|
-232.52
|
Unit Price
|
391
|
401
|
-10.0
|
-44.0
|
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (June 17-21, 2019), spot soybean meal is up at the beginning and then down, and generally further decline. As of this Friday, the price is 2830-2940 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 30-70 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
3,050
|
3,080
|
-30
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2,920
|
3,000
|
-80
|
Hebei
|
2,930
|
3,030
|
-100
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,950
|
3,040
|
-90
|
Henan
|
2,970
|
3,060
|
-90
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,870
|
2,900
|
-30
|
Jiangsu
|
2,880
|
2,950
|
-70
|
Zhejiang
|
2,880
|
2,920
|
-40
|
Shanghai
|
2,880
|
2,920
|
-40
|
Fujian
|
2,860
|
2,970
|
-110
|
Anhui
|
2,910
|
2,990
|
-80
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,820
|
2,870
|
-50
|
Guangxi
|
2,830
|
2,880
|
-50
|
National average
|
2,868
|
2,930
|
-62
|
Inventory: The trading volume of soybean meal is at a relatively low level this week with slow delivery. As of this Friday, the total trading volume is pegged at 462,400 tonnes, a decline of 4.05% from 482,000 tonnes last week. The inventory also continues to rises on the 1.79-mln-tonne of soybean crush. On the week as of June 21st, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 852,800 tonnes, up 92,800 tonnes by 12.21% from 760,000 tonnes last week yet down by 31.12% from 1,238,200 tonnes a year earlier. The inventory will slow down its growth next week on lower output as soybean crush will fall to around 1.75 mln tonnes.
Customs Data: China imported 950 tonnes of soybean meal in May, up 550 tonnes by 112.5% from 400 tonnes last month yet down 1,777 tonnes by 65.16% from 2,727 tonnes of the same month a year earlier.
Month
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
Jan
|
31,167
|
1,316
|
2,089
|
10,301
|
3,239
|
6,036
|
707
|
1,225
|
Feb
|
1,857
|
2,615
|
2,674
|
6,860
|
2,725
|
12,726
|
23
|
233
|
Mar
|
1,528.55
|
3,415
|
3,678
|
6,948
|
650
|
8,931
|
1,323
|
1,615
|
Apr
|
290
|
1,194
|
3,561
|
8,105
|
1,019
|
6,296
|
2,323
|
400
|
May
|
4,207.94
|
2,048
|
2,259
|
7,880
|
1,372
|
7,522
|
2,727
|
950
|
Jun
|
1,057.50
|
681
|
633
|
3,658
|
1,322
|
5,699
|
3,004
|
|
Jul
|
1,345.99
|
815
|
200
|
820
|
1,001
|
2,363
|
484
|
|
Aug
|
1,058
|
800
|
562
|
3,045
|
1,093
|
2,290
|
1,276
|
|
Sept
|
325
|
500
|
500
|
2,000
|
900
|
2,047
|
1,766
|
|
Oct
|
325
|
803
|
720
|
4,214
|
549
|
1,726
|
5,216
|
|
Nov
|
1,460
|
1,233
|
1,236
|
2,436
|
900
|
3,860
|
4,039
|
|
Dec
|
800
|
1,263
|
4,485
|
2,000
|
3,307
|
1,708
|
102
|
|
TTL
|
45,421.98
|
16,683
|
22,597
|
58,267
|
18,077
|
61,204
|
22,989.37
|
4423.35
|
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (June 17-21, 2019), soybean oil declines again. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5190-5350 yuan/tonne, up 20-100 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5190-5200
|
5250-5260
|
-60
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,220
|
5,270
|
-50
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,370
|
5,410
|
-40
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,320
|
5,340
|
-20
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,270
|
5,310
|
-40
|
Inventory: The inventory has piled higher this week. On the week as of June 21st, the inventory has totaled 1,483,400 tonnes, up 23,450 tonnes by 1.61% from 1,459,950 tonnes last week, up 27,600 tonnes by 1.9% from 1,455,800 tonnes month-on-month, and up 64,600 tonnes by 4.55% from 1,418,800 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,176,300 tonnes.
Customs Data: China imported 54,476.597 tonnes of soybean oil in May, up 48,759.06 tonnes by 852.8% from 5,717.541 tonnes last month yet down 4368.843 tonnes by 7.42% from 58845.44 tonnes of the same month a year earlier.
Month
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
Jan
|
100,953
|
43,998.00
|
14,187.00
|
35,786
|
19,364.23
|
65,615.83
|
Feb
|
132,773
|
1,798.00
|
78,747.00
|
29,297
|
5,794.13
|
62,921.25
|
Mar
|
40,023
|
4,042.00
|
15,753.00
|
27,003
|
8,882.44
|
5,828.41
|
Apr
|
21,995
|
5,264.00
|
18,898.00
|
53,162
|
9,164.40
|
5,717.54
|
May
|
73,845
|
5,219.00
|
16,576.00
|
74,550
|
58,845.44
|
54,476.59
|
Jun
|
96,566
|
91,324.00
|
43,187.00
|
140,929
|
68,280.82
|
|
Jul
|
174,005
|
218,839.00
|
98,329.00
|
76,033
|
30,582.73
|
|
Aug
|
172,352
|
111,934.00
|
93,284.00
|
74,977
|
81,593.07
|
|
Sept
|
176,063
|
144,014.00
|
15,630.00
|
33,657
|
79,085.43
|
|
Oct
|
95,892
|
84,728.00
|
49,755.00
|
59,397
|
65,951.90
|
|
Nov
|
10,052
|
90,984.00
|
79,168.00
|
16,136.94
|
56,273
|
|
Dec
|
40,958
|
15,735.00
|
36,713.00
|
32,527
|
54,323.91
|
|
TTL
|
1,135,477
|
817,879.00
|
560,227.00
|
653,454.94
|
538,141.49
|
194,559.62
|
