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Soybean Report Weekly-as of June 21, 2019

2019-06-26 www.cofeed.com
     I.Soybean

     Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. Amid quick delivery pace, the sales market is supported.  The US-China trade relationship is expected to improve amid a telephone conversation by leaders of China and the United States has confirmed a meeting between the two leaders during the upcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit. And chief trade negotiators of China and the United States will communicate in line with the instructions made by the two heads of state. However, US soybean import is still restricted ahead of an agreement made by the two parties, and imported soybean in the short run is likely to go strong on the traders' mindset for higher offers. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.




China's Imported Soybean Weekly PriceRMB/mT

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Changes

Shandong

Import, PNW

Not reported

Not reported

 

Import, Uruguay

Not reported

Not reported

 

Import, US GULF

Not reported

Not reported

 

Tianjin

Import,Canada

Not reported

Not reported

 -

Import,Kazakhstan

4470

4470

0

Import,Uruguay

4370

Uq

 -


     Crush: As mills have picked up their utilization rate, soybean crush reaches a total of 1,792,400 tonnes (meal 1,415,996 tonnes and oil 340,556 tonnes), an increase of 66,220 tonnes by 3.83% from 1,726,200 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) has gone up by 1.85 percentage points to 50.17% from 48.32% last week. The crush is predicted to fall to around 1.75 mln tonnes for machine maintenance and swollen inventories of soybean oil and meal next week, but will return to around 1.82 mln tonnes the following week. 

     As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 61,366,315 tonnes, down 2,545,833 tonnes by 3.98% from 63,912,148 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 38,214,915 tonnes, down 1,296,513 tonnes by 3.28% from 39,511,428 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018. 



     Inventory: According to statistics surveyed by Cofeed, soybean stockpiles have been piling up fractionally due to huge imports. On the week as of June 21st, imported soybean inventory is 4,480,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 216,100 tonnes by 5.07% from 4,264,100 tonnes last week yet down by 28.09% from 6,231,100 tonnes of the same period last year. With ongoing arrivals of soybean at ports in the third quarter, the inventory likely continues to rise later. 



     Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 29 cargoes with 1.817 mln tonnes this week, a total of 79 cargoes with 5.007 mln tonne for June so far. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 8.335 mln tonne for June shipment, 9.60 mln tonnes for July, 9.80 mln tonnes for August, 10.0 mln tonnes for September, and 8.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying. 


     Customs Data: China imported 7.36 mln tonnes of soybeans in March, down 280,000 by 3.66% from 7.64 mln tonnes last month and down 2.325 mln tonnes by 24.01% from 9.685 mln tonnes of the same month a year earlier, customs data showed.

     Unit: 0'000 tonnes, USD/tonne

Country

2019 May

2019 Apr

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Brazil

630.25

578.57

51.68

-282.10

Canada

0.06

7.18

-7.12

3.56

USA

97.7

175.49

-77.79

48.75

Russia Fed

3.78

2.54

1.24

0.48

Kazakhstan

0.46

0.18

0.28

0.16

Ethiopia

0

0

-0.04

-0.19

Ukraine

0.02

-

-

0.02

Uruguay

3.93

-

3.93

3.93

Total Qty.

736.2

764.0

-27.8

-232.52

Unit Price

391

401

-10.0

-44.0



     II.Soybean Meal

     Price: This week (June 17-21, 2019), spot soybean meal is up at the beginning and then down, and generally further decline. As of this Friday, the price is 2830-2940 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 30-70 yuan/tonne from last week. 




China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (RMB/mT)

Region

This week

Last week

Changes

Northeast China

Jilin

3,050

3,080

-30

North China

Tianjin

2,920

3,000

-80

Hebei

2,930

3,030

-100

Central China

Hubei

2,950

3,040

-90

Henan

2,970

3,060

-90

East China

Shandong

2,870

2,900

-30

Jiangsu

2,880

2,950

-70

Zhejiang

2,880

2,920

-40

Shanghai

2,880

2,920

-40

Fujian

2,860

2,970

-110

Anhui

2,910

2,990

-80

South China

Guangdong

2,820

2,870

-50

Guangxi

2,830

2,880

-50

National average

2,868

2,930

-62


     Inventory: The trading volume of soybean meal is at a relatively low level this week with slow delivery. As of this Friday, the total trading volume is pegged at 462,400 tonnes, a decline of 4.05% from 482,000 tonnes last week. The inventory also continues to rises on the 1.79-mln-tonne of soybean crush. On the week as of June 21st, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 852,800 tonnes, up 92,800 tonnes by 12.21% from 760,000 tonnes last week yet down by 31.12% from 1,238,200 tonnes a year earlier. The inventory will slow down its growth next week on lower output as soybean crush will fall to around 1.75 mln tonnes. 





     Customs Data: China imported 950 tonnes of soybean meal in May, up 550 tonnes by 112.5% from 400 tonnes last month yet down 1,777 tonnes by 65.16% from 2,727 tonnes of the same month a year earlier. 

Month

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Jan

31,167

1,316

2,089

10,301

3,239

6,036

707

1,225

Feb

1,857

2,615

2,674

6,860

2,725

12,726

23

233

Mar

1,528.55

3,415

3,678

6,948

650

8,931

1,323

1,615

Apr

290

1,194

3,561

8,105

1,019

6,296

2,323

400 

May

4,207.94

2,048

2,259

7,880

1,372

7,522

2,727

950 

Jun

1,057.50

681

633

3,658

1,322

5,699

3,004

 

Jul

1,345.99

815

200

820

1,001

2,363

484

 

Aug

1,058

800

562

3,045

1,093

2,290

1,276

 

Sept

325

500

500

2,000

900

2,047

1,766

 

Oct

325

803

720

4,214

549

1,726

5,216

 

Nov

1,460

1,233

1,236

2,436

900

3,860

4,039

 

Dec

800

1,263

4,485

2,000

3,307

1,708

102

 

TTL

45,421.98

16,683

22,597

58,267

18,077

61,204

22,989.37

4423.35


     III.Soybean Oil

     Price: This week (June 17-21, 2019), soybean oil declines again. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5190-5350 yuan/tonne, up 20-100 yuan/tonne.




China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Changes

Northeast China

Dalian,
Liaoning

GB Grade 1

-

-

-

GB Grade 3

-

-

-

North China

Qinhuangdao,
Hebei

GB Grade 1

-

-

-

Tianjin

GB Grade 1

5190-5200

5250-5260

-60

East China

Rizhao,
Shandong

GB Grade 1

5,220

5,270

-50

Xiamen,
Fujian

GB Grade 1

-

-

-

Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu

GB Grade 1

5,370

5,410

-40

Central China

Zhengzhou,
Henan

GB Grade 1

-

-

-

South China

Dongguan,
Guangdong

GB Grade 1

5,320

5,340

-20

Fangchenggang,
Guangxi

GB Grade 1

-

-

-

GB Grade 3

-

-

-

National average

 

5,270

5,310

-40


     Inventory: The inventory has piled higher this week. On the week as of June 21st, the inventory has totaled 1,483,400 tonnes, up 23,450 tonnes by 1.61% from 1,459,950 tonnes last week, up 27,600 tonnes by 1.9% from 1,455,800 tonnes month-on-month, and up 64,600 tonnes by 4.55% from 1,418,800 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,176,300 tonnes.




     Customs Data: China imported 54,476.597 tonnes of soybean oil in May, up 48,759.06 tonnes by 852.8% from 5,717.541 tonnes last month yet down 4368.843 tonnes by 7.42% from 58845.44 tonnes of the same month a year earlier. 

Month

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Jan

100,953

43,998.00

14,187.00

35,786

19,364.23

65,615.83

Feb

132,773

1,798.00

78,747.00

29,297

5,794.13

62,921.25

Mar

40,023

4,042.00

15,753.00

27,003

8,882.44

5,828.41

Apr

21,995

5,264.00

18,898.00

53,162

9,164.40

5,717.54

May

73,845

5,219.00

16,576.00

74,550

58,845.44

54,476.59

Jun

96,566

91,324.00

43,187.00

140,929

68,280.82

 

Jul

174,005

218,839.00

98,329.00

76,033

30,582.73

 

Aug

172,352

111,934.00

93,284.00

74,977

81,593.07

 

Sept

176,063

144,014.00

15,630.00

33,657

79,085.43

 

Oct

95,892

84,728.00

49,755.00

59,397

65,951.90

 

Nov

10,052

90,984.00

79,168.00

16,136.94

56,273

 

Dec

40,958

15,735.00

36,713.00

32,527

54,323.91

 

TTL

1,135,477

817,879.00

560,227.00

653,454.94

538,141.49

194,559.62