Today (Jul. 4th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean rebounded overnight, but meal futures fluctuate to edge down on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,760-2,810 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,810, Shandong 2,760-2,810, Jiangsu 2,770-2,810, Dongguan 2,770-2,800, and Guangxi 2,770-2,800). The weather in Midwest is favorable soybean farmers to quicken their planting, and global soybean is in bumper supply, so U.S. soybean prices have been depressed. Besides, soybean import arriving at domestic ports will be huge in the third quarter, with a monthly average of 9.50 mln tonnes, and the market said that China had resumed U.S. soybean purchases. Meanwhile, the ongoing African swine fever has caused a sharp decline in breeding pig amount, and traders have seen lower profits in broilers due to a recent price collapse, both of which have cracked down on the meal demand. And soybean meal has already been in weak trading since June, with its inventory constantly increasing. As a result, some mills have to halt for swelling stockpiles. Soybean meal prices are thus restrained. But there is no telling about the trade talks that may last for a long time, and the weather speculation on U.S. soybean may again occur during the critical period of growth, which will help prevent meal prices from falling further. Meal futures still post some losses on the DCE, so buyers can stay on the sidelines or take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal drops today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan at 2,450-2,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,490, down 10; and Fujian 2,450, down 20). Feed factories have replaced rapeseed meal substantially with soybean meal due to their small price gap, and soybean import will hit a monthly average of 9.5 mln tonnes from July to September. Meanwhile, soybean meal price is weak in going upward due to the ongoing African swine fever. Capped by soybean meal, rapeseed meal has limited upward space for its prices. But given the uncertain result of trade talks between China and the United States, as well as the pending conflicts between China and Canada, rapeseed supply will get tightened later, and this is a support to rapeseed meal market. Overall, rapeseed meal may be in a range-bound and choppy trend in the short run, and buyers can buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are flat today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,100-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,800-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 105,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 23,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,630 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. A slow recovery in aquaculture and the ongoing African swine fever have jointly limited the demand for fishmeal, sending its import volume to go far above the demand, so that domestic fishmeal market is subdued by growing stockpiles. But there is still support from firm prices abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; demand in downstream is sluggish. However, the decline is restricted as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to experience a weak adjustment and buyers can maintain wait-and-see attitudes for now.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
