Today (Jul. 5th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean trading was closed last night, and meal futures inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily go down by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,740-2,790 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,790, Shandong 2,750-2,780, Jiangsu 2,740-2,780, Dongguan 2,750-2,790, and Guangxi 2,750-2,780). The market said that state-owned firms might resume U.S. soybean purchases due the restart of trade talks, which would expand the already huge import. Meanwhile, the ongoing African swine fever has resulted in a sharp decline in breeding pig amount, especially in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei and some southwestern regions, and broiler farmers have suffered some losses, both of which have influenced meal demand. And soybean meal has already been in weak trading since June, with its inventory constantly climbing higher. As a result, an increasing number of mills have to halt for swelling stockpiles. Soybean meal prices thus keep falling. But there is still huge uncertainties in trade disputes, as China’s Ministry of Commerce said that all additional tariffs imposed by the US should be eliminated if China and the United States eventually reach a trade deal. and the weather speculation on U.S. soybean may again occur during the critical period of growth, so mills are still confident about later market, which will help prevent meal prices from falling wildly. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment in small batch on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal drops today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,460-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,500,; and Fujian 2,460, down 10). Feed factories have replaced rapeseed meal substantially with soybean meal due to their small price gap, and soybean import is predicted to be huge with a monthly average of 9.5 mln tonnes from July to September. Meanwhile, soybean meal inventory keeps increasing and even swelling due to the ongoing African swine fever, which has also dragged down rapeseed meal market. But given the uncertain result of trade talks between China and the United States, as well as the pending conflicts between China and Canada, rapeseed supply will get tightened later, and this is a support to rapeseed meal market. Overall, rapeseed meal may be in a range-bound and choppy trend in the short run, and buyers can buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are flat today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,100-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,800-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 106,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 20,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,630 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. A slow recovery in aquaculture and the ongoing African swine fever have jointly limited the demand for fishmeal, sending its import volume to go far above the demand and the total inventory to reach 235,000 tonnes, so that domestic fishmeal market is restricted. But there is still support from firm prices abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some drops of 30-100 yuan/tonne, when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; demand in downstream is sluggish; today meals on DCE take a slight drop and spot soybean meal partially declines 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the decline is restricted as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to experience a weak adjustment, and buyers can maintain wait-and-see attitudes for now.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
