Today (Jul. 5th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices stay stable with slight corrections today. The price prevails at 2,010-2,066 yuan/tonne in Shandong today, some down by 4 yuan/tonne from yesterday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, corn with 14.5% moisture, volume weight over 700 g/L, mildew within 2%, 1% heat damage and 6%-8% unsound grain is priced steadily at 1,850-1,880 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced steadily at 1,860-1,870 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690 g/L and moisture 14.5%). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class corn is predicted to be traded at around 1,950 yuan/tonne, with some negotiating space.
The 7th round of temporary-reserved corn auction has completed with the trading rate further falling to 21.82%, which has depressed the market sentiment. Traders are trying to clear their stockpiles, which has helped expand the periodic supply in the market. In addition, the African swine fever is not under effective control and has caused a sharp decline in breeding pig amount, especially in Guangdong and Guangxi, so feed enterprises show little interest in purchases, resulting in weak shipments at port. Curbed by depressed fundamentals, the price has declined by 4 yuan/tonne in some Shandong regions. However, the market have been propping up prices due to the price inversions at Southern and Northern ports, so corn prices have continued to receive some support. In the absence of any new support, short-term prices will probably stay stable with slight fluctuations. Participants can pay attention to the auction and updates in U.S.-China trade talks.
Sorghum:
Imported sorghum prices stay stable today. (U.S. sorghum is not offered for out of stock in Shanghai, Nantong, Zhangjiagang and Guangdong; Australian sorghum: raw sorghum is 2,380 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,200 in Qingdao and out of stock in Nantong, and dried sorghum is 2,490 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,300 in Qingdao).
Domestic sorghum prices keep steady today. In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum is 2,200 and dried sorghum 2,300 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; raw sorghum is not offered and dried sorghum 2,300 in Chifeng; and raw sorghum 2,200 in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum 2,400 yuan/tonne in Changchun; raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with loading are both 2,100 yuan/tonne in Songyuan; sorghum is out of stock in Baicheng; and raw sorghum and dried sorghum sacks are 1,900 and 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with loading is 2,060 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; dried sorghum with loading is 2,200 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and raw sorghum is 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum is 2,040 in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,400 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight are 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices are unchanged today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum is out of stock in Qingdao and bulk raw sorghum 2,190 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is 2,060 yuan/tonne and for brewing is unchanged at 2,180 yuan/tonne in Nantong, and raw sorghum is 2,070 yuan/tonne in Qingdao; French barley: raw barley is not offered in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Sorghum price is now dragged down by weak demand due to continued drops in corn prices. And importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices in view of low barley inventories at ports and stubbornly high cost of Australian barley. Merely, port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitutes. According to statistics from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, hog in breeding in May has declined by 4.2% from April and by 22.9% from the corresponding period last year, and reproductive sow has declined by 4.1% from last month and by 23.9% from a year earlier. The African swine fever has roiled the original trend of hog cycle in China, as middle and small farmers withdrew from the market and geared up the elimination of breeding sow stocks since the first outbreak last August, and it has been fiercely cutting the pig number in those provinces reported with more outbreaks. Thus, it will be hard for farmers to rebuild confidence in short time as a fall in live pig and sow stocks has stricken a serious blow at the sector. Given this, grain market will be curbed by its later consumption. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term, and port sorghum market may be buoyed again by concerns over trade disputes, so participants and focus on the outcome of trade talks.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
