Today (Jul. 8th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed to hit a three-week low last Friday, as its output prospect was buoyed by improved weather conditions in the Corn Belt, and meal futures pare gains amid low opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily go down by 10-30 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,720-2,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2760, Shandong 2,730-2,770, Jiangsu 2,725-2,770, Dongguan 2,720-2,770, and Guangxi 2,730-2,770). On one hand, soybean import may reach a total of 29 mln tonnes in the third quarter, and the market said that state-owned firms might resume U.S. soybean purchases due the restart of trade talks; on the other, the demand for meals has been depressed because the ongoing African swine fever has resulted in a sharp decline in live pig amount and broiler farmers have suffered some losses. Meanwhile, soybean meal itself has already been in weak trading since June, leading to growing inventories and even downtime in mills due to swelling stockpiles, and the market thus gets overwhelmed. But due to a huge decline in soybean planting acreage and capricious weather conditions in production areas, the speculation may occur again as soybeans enter into the critical period of growth on the second half of this month, and then soybean meal price may be buoyed again. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal drops today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan at 2,440-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,480, down 20; and Fujian 2,440, down 20). The demand for rapeseed meal has suffered a cut due to its spread with soybean meal at a five-year low of 350-400 yuan/tonne, well below a normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, and the inventory has thus increased by 100% to 23,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. Meanwhile, it is unlikely to eliminate the influence brought by the African swine fever in a short time. Moreover, soybean crush will remain at a relatively high level because of its huge import quantity in the next three to four months. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has come under pressure. But it is difficult for China and Canada to enter into a thaw in a short term, so rapeseed supply may get tightened in the second half of July, which will provide some support to rapeseed meal prices to have restricted room for declines in the near term. Buyers can wait for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are flat today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,100-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,800-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 106,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 24,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,630 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. A slow recovery in aquaculture and the ongoing African swine fever have jointly limited the demand for fishmeal and made its fall far behind the import volume, so that the inventory has reached a total of 236,000 tonnes; hence, domestic fishmeal market is bearish. But there is still support from firm prices abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some drops of 20-100 yuan/tonne, when the spread of ASF greatly impacts demand for cottonseed meal; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; demand in downstream is sluggish; today meals on DCE fall back with low open and spot soybean meal declines 10-30 yuan/tonne. However, oil mills are still waiting for a higher offers as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to experience a weak adjustment, and buyers can maintain wait-and-see attitudes for now.
(USD $1=CNY 6.89)
