Soybean: Soybean inventory has increased fractionally this week as its crush has dropped to 1.41 mln tonnes amid a sharp decline in utilization rate. On the week as of July 5th, imported soybean inventory is 4,265,900 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 210,300 tonnes by 5.19% from 4,055,600 tonnes last week yet down by 37.21% from 6,794,000 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 29 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to climb higher later.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: The inventory continues to increase this week in weak trade, but the increment is small as the crush has declined to a relatively low level. On the week as of July 5th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 942,700 tonnes, up 29,700 tonnes by 3.32% from 895,000 tonnes last week yet down by 27.30% from 1,272,100 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.54 mln tonnes next week, coupled with weak demand from downstream buyers, soybean meal inventory is predicted to pile higher slightly.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts increases this week. On the week as of July 5th, outstanding contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,297,300 tonnes unfinished, up 465,700 tonnes by 16.45% from 2,831,600 tonnes last week yet markedly down by 49.12% from 6,481,200 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
