I．National stocks
This week (as of July 5th), edible palm oil stock totals 699,300 tonnes at domestic ports, up 6.1% from 659,100 tonnes last week and down 37,200 tonnes or 5.1% from 736,500 tonnes the same period last month, and up 131,400 tonnes or 23.14% from 567,900 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 127,300 tonnes, down 4,130 tonnes or 3.1% from 131,430 tonnes last week.
The edible palm oil stock this week stops declining and increases owing to the rise of arrivals. According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the July imports for 24-degree palm oil are 380,000-400,000 tonnes, and the August imports are 400,000-450,000 tonnes. However, it's still favorable for destocking as the busy season for palm oil consumption is coming with the rising temperature; palm oil demand from biodiesel in Guangdong obviously increases; the higher price spread between soybean oil and palm oil boosts the increase of blending ratio for palm oil. This week the price spread continue to expand. As of this Friday, the spread is 1,023 yuan/tonne, expanding 60 yuan/tonne from 963 yuan/tonne last week. And the trading volume this week is 78,400 tonnes.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for June this week is up 20,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 470,000-500,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 350,000-380,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate for July this week goes up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 500,000-520,000 tonnes (24-degree 380,000-400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate of import volume for August this week is up 100,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 520,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 400,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
