Today (Jul. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: As the market expects the USDA to lower its soybean output estimate and ending stocks in its report for July today, U.S. soybeans have been buoyed to extend gains in overnight trading, so are meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal go up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,710-2,770 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,770, Shandong 2,720-2,760, Jiangsu 2,720-2,750, Dongguan 2,710-2,720, and Guangxi 2,720-2,750). Soybean meal has been in stronger trading as its prices have fallen to touch the psychological level of downstream buyers who have consumed their stockpiles to low points after a long wait, and the prices have snapped off declines to rebound. But lower estimates for U.S. soybean output and stocks and huge global supply, coupled with swelling inventories under the African swine fever, will depress rebounds of meal prices. If there are further futures rises, buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips, but not to chase after higher prices excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it settles up 20-30 yuan at 2,380-2,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,450, up 20; and Fujian 2,380). Rapeseed meal market is buoyed by a tight supply outlook of rapeseed in the second half of July since it is difficult for China and Canada to settle their problems in a short time. But the market will be depressed when going upward, for feed factories have made swingeing cuts to rapeseed meal in view of its small price spread with soybean meal. Besides, soybean crush will maintain at a high level due to its huge import from July to September, and the lingering African swine fever is also a curb on later demand. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in driving up prices, while waiting for the USDA report tonight.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable today amid tepid shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 112,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 26,000 tonnes, Shanghai 78,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 20,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,630 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and as the shipment lags behind the import, the total inventory has piled up to 242,000 tonnes. Traders are under pressure and turn willing to sell their stockpiles. But there is still support from firm prices in foreign markets and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; today meals on DCE extend the rise and spot soybean meal goes up 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, cottonseed meal market is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory and the general demand in downstream is not good. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate narrowly. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
