Today (Jul. 11th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price is steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,370 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and Russian soybean is unchange at 4,170 yuan/tonne from yesterday. The decreased demand and the dealers' increasing willingness of delivery in contango as well as the slow delivery are negative to imported and distributed soybean. Besides, the imported soybeans later are likely to increase when the soybean supply globally is ample and more US soybeans may be imported into China amid the relief of US-China trade tension and the trade talks resuming. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are partially stable with most purchase activities suspending, due to the reducing supply of cottonseed. However, cottonseed market is weighted on when operation rate and purchase activity are lower; some mills mainly use its own stock and quantity of cottonseed trading is not a lot; and delivery for both cottonseed oil and meal is not good. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate in narrow range and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.
Oils:
Summary: U.S. soybeans were buoyed to extend gains in overnight trading, as the market expects the USDA to lower its soybean output estimate and ending stocks in its report for July on Thursday night, and oil futures fluctuate to adjust on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the physicals, soybean oil and palm oil fluctuate partially by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract stronger trading upon low-level basis. As buyers are closing their arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals on account of soybean meal price rises, domestic oil futures are under pressure to edge down in spite of higher opens. But soybean oil inventory has dropped following the decline in soybean crush, and it has been in strong trading, with the trading volume hitting 44,000 tonnes yesterday. Besides, the stockpiles for packing oil are near at hand, so mills are active in raising prices. Therefore, oil market will extend its strong trend in fluctuation in coming days. But there are still negative fundamentals that will curb the rebounds, including an import of nearly 29 mln tonnes of soybeans in the third quarter and frequent palm oil cargoes purchases. Buyers can wait for lower prices to make proper replenishment on the dips and had better not chase after price rises excessively.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,240-5,390 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,240, Rizhao 5,300, Zhangjiagang 5,390, and Guangzhou 5,320-5,330).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,210-4,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, some fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,280-4,290, flat; Rizhao 4,270-4,280, down 10; Zhangjiagang 4,200, flat; Guangzhou 4,210, up 20; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily edges lower in price today, of which it settles down 10 yuan partially at 6,780-6,900 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 6,790, down 10; Guangdong 6,780, down 10; and Guangxi not offered). Rapeseed oil market has few buyers now as its demand is cut by its large price gap with soybean oil and palm oil. Besides, soybean import is huge in the third quarter, and importers are also buying up on lucrative palm oil. Due to due to such fundamentals, rapeseed oil market remains bearish. But rapeseed supply may get tightened in the second half of July since it is difficult for China and Canada to enter into a thaw in a short term, and the stockpiles for packing oil are expected to gradually get started soon, so rapeseed oil market may receive some support to maintain at high levels. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish in small batch on the dips.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices. And some support comes from the following situations that the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong. Besides, a busy season for restocking of small-packing oils is coming. However, cottonseed oil is weighted on owing to the limited consumption for cottonseed oil as blending oils, thin turnover of new orders, high fundamental pressure in main oil market, and poor delivery volume. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to fluctuate narrowly and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
