Today (Jul. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Soybean crops might gasp as the forecast called for higher-than-normal temperatures along with lower-than-normal rainfalls in the Midwest, so U.S. soybean futures last Friday night and meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today are both buoyed to post huge gains. Spot bids for soybean meal follow to jump higher by 40-70 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases, but still in delicate trading at high levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2,790-2,850 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,850, Shandong 2,810-2,850, Jiangsu 2,790-2,820, Dongguan 2,810-2,830, and Guangxi 2,800-2,820). Soybean meal market has become more dynamic because downstream buyers are buying on the dips after the price fell to their psychological level, sending the inventory to drop by 1.3% last week. Moreover, U.S. soybean futures remain strong as there are some signs of weather speculations on high temperatures, in addition to the bullish report by the USDA. And according to a report by Bloomberg, China would not boost its purchases of U.S. farm products ahead of any specific progress in the trade talks. The above-mentioned factors may jointly support soybean meal prices to continue rebounds in the short term. But there are still some uncertain factors that may impact the upward impetus of soybean meal prices: for one thing, world supply and demand of soybean is still in a loose pattern; for another, while domestic soybean import is huge in the third quarter, mills are still fed up with soybean meal inventories due to the contagious African swine fever and the loss in broiler farming. Buyers can replenish properly on the dips, but had better not chase up prices if with adequate stockpiles.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it settles up 30-50 yuan at 2,440-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,520; and Fujian 2,440, up 50). Rapeseed may point to tight supply in the second half of July since it is difficult for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time, coupled with the weather speculation on U.S. soybean crop growth period. Rapeseed meal price is thus shored up. But its demand is severely cut by its small price spread with soybean meal so that its inventory has increased by 17% to 27,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. And it is hard to eliminate the influence caused by the African swine fever, in addition to huge soybean import in the coming four months. Therefore, rapeseed meal will have limited upward impetus. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in driving up prices.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with no negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 114,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 21,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it is 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,630 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,640 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and with the import of new products from Peru, the total inventory has piled up to 247,000 tonnes. But there is still support from firm prices in foreign markets and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some strong fluctuations of 20-100 yuan/tonne as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; today meals on DCE surge and accordingly spot soybean meal goes up 40-70 yuan/tonne. However, the upward potential is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory, and the delivery pace is slow. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to rebound in narrow range. Buyers may make proper replenishment upon low prices.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
