I．National stocks
This week (as of July 12th), edible palm oil stock totals 642,500 tonnes at domestic ports, down 8.1% from 699,300 tonnes last week and down 36,700 tonnes or 5.4% from 679,200 tonnes the same period last month, and up 98,900 tonnes or 18.19% from 543,600 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 120,000 tonnes, down 7,300 tonnes or 5.7% from 127,300 tonnes last week.
China's edible palm oil stock this week declines again. This week the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues to expand, because the palm oil arrivals decrease; and the busy season for palm oil consumption is coming with the rising temperature; and palm oil demand from biodiesel in Guangdong obviously increases; and the higher price spread between soybean oil and palm oil boosts the increase of blending ratio for palm oil. As of this Friday, the spread is 1,080 yuan/tonne, expanding 57 yuan/tonne from 1023 yuan/tonne last week. And the trading volume this week is 46,100 tonnes. According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, from July 1 to July 12, 2019, the trading volume is 124,500 tonnes, up 128.02% or 54,600 tonnes from the same period last month, up 88.09% or 12,600 tonnes from the same period last year.
But the profitable margin of importing boosts China's buying for palm oil shipment. Based on our research, the average monthly imports of 24-degree palm oil for August and September would reach 450,000-500,000 tonnes, and therefore the palm oil supply later is basically enough.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for July this week is up 20,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 520,000-570,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 400,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate for August this week goes up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 570,000-620,000 tonnes (24-degree 450,000-500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate of import volume for September is 570,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
