Today (Jul. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean turned lower on the forecast for rains that would ease the hot and dry weather in the Midwest, and meal futures also pare gains upon lower opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal follow to slip by 20-50 yuan/tonne with lower trading, but still in delicate trading at high levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2,750-2,810 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,810, Shandong 2,750-2,850, Jiangsu 2,770-2,790, Dongguan 2,770-2,810, and Guangxi 2,750-2,790). The price rises of U.S. soybeans are damped by high stocks of old crops. In domestic markets, the African swine fever is cutting demand for meals in South China, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei and Sichuan provinces. And data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed a month-on-month decline of 5.1% and a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in breeding hog amount. Soybean meal price is thus prevented from further rises. However, soybean meal market has become more dynamic because downstream buyers go bargain hunting after the price fell to their psychological level, sending the inventory to drop by 1.3% last week, coupled with weather speculation on U.S. soybean, soybean meal price will be free from huge losses. Overall, there is no space for price bounces at present, and short-term market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Participants can follow up trade talks and weather conditions in soybean production regions, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it settles up 30-50 yuan at 2,440-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,520; and Fujian 2,440, up 50). Rapeseed meal inventory has continued to increase last week, for forage-manufactured factories have substantially replaced rapeseed meal with soybean meal due to their largely narrowed price gap. Moreover, pulp pellet inventory has also hovered around 110,000 tonnes, soybean import will be as huge as over 28 mln tonnes from July to September. Worse still, the African swine fever has caused a month-on-month decline of 5.1% and a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in breeding hog amount, according to data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and there are also losses in broiler farming. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is weighed down by the demand for meals. But rapeseed may point to tight supply in the second half of July since it is difficult for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time, coupled with the weather speculation on U.S. soybean crop growth period, so there will be limited space for price declines. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with no negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 115,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 21,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market is lower on delicate demand and weak sentiment today: it goes down by 30 USD to 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and also by 30 USD to 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted lower by 50 USD at 1,360 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content lower by 50 USD at 1,590 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and with the import of new products from Peru, the total inventory has piled up to 249,000 tonnes. But there is still support from firm prices in foreign markets and price inversions at home and abroad. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne, as the operation rates and output are low; cottonseed price is strong; and spot soybean meal yesterday went up 40-80 yuan/tonne. However, the upward potential is curbed because ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal. Moreover, as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory, and the delivery pace is slow. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to move sideways. Buyers are suggested to replenish properly in small batches upon low price and be prudent if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
