Today (Jul. 17th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans extended losses in overnight trading as the favorable rain in the U.S. Midwest was expected to cope with dry crop conditions, and meal futures slightly fluctuate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne with lower trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,760-2,810 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,810, Shandong 2,760-2,810, Jiangsu 2,760-2,770, Dongguan 2,770-2,780, and Guangxi 2,760-2,780). U.S. soybean futures slid for several consecutive sessions by high stockpiles of old soybeans and improved weather conditions. In domestic markets, the African swine fever is cutting demand for meals in South China, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei and Sichuan provinces. And data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed a month-on-month decline of 5.1% and a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in breeding hog amount. Soybean meal price is thus prevented from further rises. However, soybean meal market has become more dynamic because downstream buyers go bargain hunting after the price fell to their psychological level, sending the inventory to drop, coupled with weather speculation on U.S. soybean, soybean meal price is boosted. Overall, short-term market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently at a narrow range. Participants can follow up trade talks and weather conditions in soybean production regions, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steadily fluctuates today, of which it fluctuates by 10 yuan at 2,390-2,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,450, down 40; and Fujian 2,380, down 50). The overall demand for meals remains dismal due to the contagious African swine fever. Worse still, rapeseed meal has seen a fresh low in aquatic feed due to its largely narrowed price spread with soybean meal, and has been replaced by sunflower meal in poultry feedstuff. Therefore, rapeseed meal inventory has been increasing. Moreover, soybean meal price will have limited upward potential due to huge soybean import later, so short-term rapeseed meal price is depressed to snap off rises to fluctuate. But there is little room for price declines now that rapeseed may point to tight supply in the second half of July since it is difficult for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time. Rapeseed meal price will probably go strong in fluctuation, and buyers can wait for low and stable price to replenish in small batch.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with limited negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 116,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 79,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 21,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market today: it is 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and with the import of new products from Peru, the total inventory has piled up to 251,000 tonnes. Due to such bearish fundamentals, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices, when the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan and other provine in the south China with the number of live hogs down 5.1% month on month, down 25.8% year on year according to the data from Ministry of Agriculture; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; and the delivery pace is slow. However, the price adjustment is limited by the low operation rate and high cottonseed price. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to move sideways. Buyers are suggested to replenish properly in small batches upon low price and be prudent if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
