I.Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, while the demand is good. And the trader' mindset for higher offer and the sales market is supported. As to U.S.-China relationship, the two heads of state would likely agree to restart negotiations during the G20 Summit and US would likely refrain from putting the additional tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods. Although US-China trade relationship is expected to improve, US soybean import in the short run is restricted with a low possibility of US-China trade agreements. However, the bumper crop harvest in South America and huge global supply still curbs China's market. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war when market is mixed and short-term prices stay stable.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Bulk, Brazil
|
3490
|
Uq
|
-
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
4470
|
4470
|
0
|
Import,Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
4370
|
-
|
Crush: As mills have lowered their utilization rate, soybean crush reaches a total of 1,730,800 tonnes (meal 1,367,332 tonnes and oil 328,852 tonnes), a reduction of 61,600 tonnes by 3.42% from 1,792,400 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) is 48.44%, down by 1.85 percentage points from 50.17% last week. The declines is contributed to the steam at Tianjin Port which has resulted in downtime in several mills, and to the swelling inventories of soybean meal or oil in some other mills. The crush is predicted to fall to around 1.52 mln tonnes as mills are to reduce the utilization rate sharply next week, but will return to around 1.68 mln tonnes the following week.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.44 mln tonnes in June at current utilization rate, below the 7.81 mln tonnes last month, but above 7.05 mln tonnes a year earlier.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 63,097,115 tonnes, down 2,725,883 tonnes by 4.14% from 65,822,998 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 39,945,715 tonnes, down 1,476,563 tonnes by 3.56% from 41,422,278 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: Soybean stockpiles have reduced slightly due to small quantity put into the warehouses. On the week as of June 28th, imported soybean inventory is 4,055,600 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 424,600 tonnes by 5.07% from 4,480,200 tonnes last week and down by 35.58% from 6,295,600 tonnes of the same period last year. The crush will fall sharply to 1.53 mln tonnes next week, and with ongoing arrivals of soybean at ports in the third quarter, the inventory likely continues to rise later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 27 cargoes with 1.741 mln tonnes this week, a total of 108 cargoes with 6.894 mln tonne for June so far. The import is predicted to be 113 cargoes with 8.335 mln tonne for June shipment, 9.10 mln tonnes for July, 9.80 mln tonnes for August, 9.5 mln tonnes for September, and 10.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (June 24-28, 2019), spot soybean meal further decline. As of this Friday, the price is 2820-2910 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-60 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
3,040
|
3,050
|
-10
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2920-2930
|
2,920
|
10
|
Hebei
|
2,890
|
2,930
|
-40
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,920
|
2,950
|
-30
|
Henan
|
2,950
|
2,970
|
-20
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2850-2860
|
2,870
|
-10-20
|
Jiangsu
|
2,860
|
2,880
|
-20
|
Zhejiang
|
2,860
|
2,880
|
-20
|
Shanghai
|
2,860
|
2,880
|
-20
|
Fujian
|
2,830
|
2,860
|
-30
|
Anhui
|
2,890
|
2,910
|
-20
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,820
|
2,820
|
0
|
Guangxi
|
2,850
|
2,830
|
20
|
National average
|
2,863
|
2,868
|
-5
|
Inventory: The market is in light trading, although the trading volume is a little higher than last week. As of this Friday, the total trading volume is pegged at 502,900 tonnes, a rise of 8.75% from 462,400 tonnes last week, yet a decline of 33.73% from 758,900 tonnes a year earlier, so the inventory also continues to rise on weak trade. On the week as of June 28th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 895,000 tonnes, up 42,200 tonnes by 4.95% from 852,800 tonnes last week yet down by 27.77% from 1,239,100 tonnes a year earlier. Amid such a growing trend, several mills in Shandong and Guangxi have been confronted with swelling inventories. As the crush will fall sharply to 1.53 mln tonnes next week, soybean meal inventory is predicted to slow down its growth on reduced output.
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (June 24-28, 2019), soybean oil further fall back in small range. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5160-5340 yuan/tonne, down10-50 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5160
|
5190-5200
|
-30-40
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,160
|
5,220
|
-60
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,340
|
5,370
|
-30
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,280
|
5,320
|
-40
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,230
|
5,270
|
-40
|
Inventory: Soybean oil inventory has thus declined at a very small pace this week. On the week as of June 28th, the inventory has totaled 1,483,350 tonnes, down 50 tonnes by 0.001% from 1,483,400 tonnes last week, up 50,550 tonnes by 3.53% from 1,432,800 tonnes month-on-month, and down 14,450 tonnes by 0.96% from 1,497,800 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,213,200 tonnes.
