Today (Jul. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures were cracked down, as the Midwest was forecast to welcome lower temperatures to boost soybean growth next week and the USDA had reported on Monday improved soybean crop conditions against the previous week, but meal futures extend gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal follow to increase by 10-30 yuan/tonne to attract some purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,760-2,830 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,830, Shandong 2,800-2,830, Jiangsu 2,780-2,800, Dongguan 2,800-2,820, and Guangxi 2,770-2,800). Soybean meal has traded with a total of 450,000 tonnes yesterday as downstream buyers are busy purchasing after the price falls to their psychological level, which has eased its inventory pressure. And the speculation on U.S. soybean has yet finished. Therefore, soybean meal price is buoyed to rebound. But as scorching summer continues, the African swine fever is wreaking havoc in southern market, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei and Sichuan provinces, which has exerted a severe influence on the breeding hog amount and on later meal demand. Overall, short-term market may follow futures to fluctuate frequently. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment and had better not chase up price excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it settles up by 10-20 yuan at 2,420-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,470; and Fujian 2,420). Rapeseed meal market is continued to be supported by the tight rapeseed supply outlook from late this month now that its difficult for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time. But the demand in feed is still largely cut by its small price spread with soybean meal, and soybean crush remains at a high level amid bumper supply. Moreover, the African swine fever is still a curb on later demand. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will have limited upward space. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up price.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with limited negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 118,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 22,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market today: it is 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and the market now has a total inventory of 254,000 tonnes with the import of new products from Peru. Due to such bearish fundamentals, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a drop of 20 yuan/tonne for some prices, when the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan and other provine in the south China with the number of live hogs down 5.1% month on month, down 25.8% year on year according to the data from Ministry of Agriculture; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; and the delivery pace is slow. However, the price adjustment is limited by the low operation rate and high cottonseed price. Besides, today meals on DCE keep upward trend, and spot soybean meal accordingly rises 10-30 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to move sideways.
Buyers are suggested to replenish properly in small batches upon low price and be prudent if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
