I.Soybean
Price: The supply in China's ports is small, based on market estimate, totally about 30,000 tonnes. And with a good demand, the sales market is supported. However, amid the relief of U.S.-China trade tension and a rumour that China will buy US soybean again, an expected increase of US soybean imports as well as the bumper crop harvest in South America is negative to the market in China. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war when market is mixed and short-term prices stay stable.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Bulk, Brazil
|
3490
|
3490
|
0
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
4470
|
4470
|
0
|
Import,Russia
|
4230
|
Uq
|
-
|
Crush: This week, almost all mills have halted for steam problems at port in Tianjin, and some mills, especially in Guangdong, Jiangsu and southwestern regions, have to cut down production or halt for their swelling soybean meal or oil inventories, so utilization rate continues to drop at a large pace. Soybean crush totals 1,412,800 tonnes (meal 1,116,112 tonnes and oil 268,432 tonnes), a reduction of 318,000 tonnes by 18.37% from 1,730,800 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) is 39.54%, down by 8.9 percentage points from 48.44% last week. The crush is predicted to go up slightly to around 1.54 mln tonnes next week, and to around 1.62 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 64,509,915 tonnes, down 3,137,583 tonnes by 4.64% from 67,647,498 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 41,358,515 tonnes, down 1,888,263 tonnes by 4.36% from 43,246,778 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: Soybean inventory has increased fractionally this week as its crush has dropped to 1.41 mln tonnes amid a sharp decline in utilization rate. On the week as of July 5th, imported soybean inventory is 4,265,900 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 210,300 tonnes by 5.19% from 4,055,600 tonnes last week yet down by 37.21% from 6,794,000 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 29 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to climb higher later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 23 cargoes with 1.495 mln tonnes this week, a total of 18 cargoes with 1.164 mln tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 146 cargoes with 9.416 mln tonnes for July shipment, 10.0 mln tonnes for August, 9.5 mln tonnes for September, and 9.0 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (July 1-5, 2019), spot soybean meal further decline. As of this Friday, the price is 2720-2790 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 50-100 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
Uq
|
3,040
|
-
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2,810
|
2920-2930
|
-110-120
|
Hebei
|
2,790
|
2,890
|
-100
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,850
|
2,920
|
-70
|
Henan
|
2,900
|
2,950
|
-50
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,760
|
2850-2860
|
-90-100
|
Jiangsu
|
2,770
|
2,860
|
-90
|
Zhejiang
|
2,790
|
2,860
|
-70
|
Shanghai
|
2,790
|
2,860
|
-70
|
Fujian
|
2,760
|
2,830
|
-70
|
Anhui
|
2,830
|
2,890
|
-60
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,770
|
2,820
|
-50
|
Guangxi
|
2,760
|
2,850
|
-90
|
National average
|
2,778
|
2,863
|
-85
|
Inventory: The inventory continues to increase this week in weak trade, but the increment is small as the crush has declined to a relatively low level. On the week as of July 5th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 942,700 tonnes, up 29,700 tonnes by 3.32% from 895,000 tonnes last week yet down by 27.30% from 1,272,100 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.54 mln tonnes next week, coupled with weak demand from downstream buyers, soybean meal inventory is predicted to pile higher slightly.
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (July 1-5, 2019), soybean oil stops declining and rebound. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5200-5370 yuan/tonne, up 10-90 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5200-5210
|
5160
|
40-50
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,230
|
5,160
|
70
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,370
|
5,340
|
30
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,290
|
5,280
|
10
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,280
|
5,230
|
50
|
Inventory: soybean oil inventory has declined substantially this week. On the week as of July 5th, the inventory has totaled 1,437,000 tonnes, down 46,350 tonnes by 3.12% from 1,483,350 tonnes last week, up 8,200 tonnes by 0.57% from 1,428,800 tonnes month-on-month, and down 93,000 tonnes by 6.08% from 1,530,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,241,400 tonnes.
