I.Soybean
Price: The decreased demand and the dealers' increasing willingness of delivery in contango as well as the slow delivery are negative to imported and distributed soybean. Besides, Chinese and U.S. chief trade negotiators hold telephone conversation and exchanged views on implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka. According to Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin may visit China soon and the U.S.-China trade talks are likely to resume. And Brazilian soybean crop estimate for 2018/19 was 115 million tonnes, up 0.2 million tonnes. Amid the expected increase of US soybeans imports and the ample supply globally, the rising supply of imported soybean will also be negative to China's market. Short-term prices likely maintain stable with weak momentum. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price（RMB/mT）
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Bulk, Brazil
|
3390
|
3490
|
-100
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
4370
|
4470
|
-100
|
Import,Russia
|
4170
|
4230
|
-60
|
Crush: As the utilization rate remains at a low level in spite of a slight pickup due to swelling soybean meal inventories, soybean crush totals 1,523,600 tonnes (meal 1,203,644 tonnes and oil 289,484 tonnes), an increase of 110,800 tonnes by 7.84% from 1,412,800 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) is 43.67%, up by 4.3 percentage points from 39.54% last week. The crush is predicted to fall to around 1.48 mln tonnes amid a slight decline in utilization rate next week, but it will climb higher to around 1.65 mln tonnes the following week.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 66,033,515 tonnes, down 3,327,483 tonnes by 4.79% from 69,360,998 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 42,882,115 tonnes, down 2,078,163 tonnes by 4.62% from 44,960,278 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory has slightly increased amid a low-level crush of 1.52 mln tonne, as the overall utilization rate has just picked up fractionally due to swelling soybean meal inventories. On the week as of July 12th, imported soybean inventory is 4,270,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 4,500 tonnes by 0.11% from 4,265,900 tonnes last week yet down by 34.23% from 6,493,000 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to climb higher later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 27 cargoes with 1.697 mln tonnes this week, a total of 45 cargoes with 2.874 mln tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 146 cargoes with 9.416 mln tonnes for July shipment, 9.5 mln tonnes for August, 9.5 mln tonnes for September, and 8.8 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (July 8-12, 2019), spot soybean meal trend is down at the beginning and then up. As of this Friday, the price is 2720-2800 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, mostly down by 10-50 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
2,910
|
Uq
|
-
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2,780
|
2,810
|
-30
|
Hebei
|
2,760
|
2,790
|
-30
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,820
|
2,850
|
-30
|
Henan
|
2,840
|
2,900
|
-60
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2,740
|
2,760
|
-20
|
Jiangsu
|
2,700
|
2,770
|
-70
|
Zhejiang
|
2,700
|
2,790
|
-90
|
Shanghai
|
2,700
|
2,790
|
-90
|
Fujian
|
2,730
|
2,760
|
-30
|
Anhui
|
2,780
|
2,830
|
-50
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,720
|
2,770
|
-50
|
Guangxi
|
2,730
|
2,760
|
-30
|
National average
|
2,735
|
2,778
|
-43
|
Inventory: The inventory reverses to decline slightly this week, as the trading volume has increased by 162.65% weekly to 788,100 tonnes from 300,100 tonnes ending this Friday. On the week as of July 12th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 912,900 tonnes, down 11,800 tonnes by 1.28% from 924,700 tonnes last week and down by 27.14% from 1,253,100 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will fall to around 1.48 mln tonnes, soybean meal inventory is predicted to pose minor reduction next week.
III.Soybean Oil
Price: This week (July 8-12, 2019), soybean oil further go up. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5220-5380 yuan/tonne, mostly up 10-90 yuan/tonne, partially down 10-30 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5220-5230
|
5200-5210
|
20
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,280
|
5,230
|
50
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,380
|
5,370
|
10
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,310
|
5,290
|
20
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,310
|
5,280
|
30
|
Inventory: Soybean oil inventory has thus slightly increased this week. On the week as of July 12th, the inventory has totaled 1,441,650 tonnes, up 4,650 tonnes by 0.32% from 1,437,000 tonnes last week, down 6,350 tonnes by 0.44% from 1,448,000 tonnes month-on-month, and down 127,850tonnes by 8.15% from 1,569,500 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,264,800 tonnes.
