Today (Jul. 19th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean extended losses due to the forecast for lower temperatures in Midwest and the dismal export, especially as the concern over the African swine fever on the demand in China was triggered after China canceled nearly 10,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean contract, and meal futures also inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal follow to increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,780-2,830 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,830, Shandong 2,790-2,830, Jiangsu 2,780-2,790, Dongguan 2,780-2,800, and Guangxi 2,780-2,800). While soybean import is predicted to hit above 28.0 mln tonnes in the third quarter, the demand for meal remains negative due to the lingering African swine fever which has been reported in Southern regions and Southwestern regions as well as Hunan and Hubei recently. This is curb on the soybean meal price. But the speculation on the U.S. soybean weather has yet finished as high temperatures and dry weather may return at any time. And soybean meal has been in better trading, with the trading volume hitting 1.12 mln tonnes to see a weekly increase of 93% as of this Thursday, which has eased the inventory pressure. These will help limit the price declines. Short-term trend may follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range to consolidate, and buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down by 10-30 yuan at 2,390-2,500 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,480, down 20; and Fujian 2,390, down 10). Feed factories have replaced rapeseed meal substantially with soybean meal due to their largely narrowed price spread. Besides, soybean import is huge so that its crush is maintained at a high level, and buyers remain cautious due to the influence of the African swine fever. But there is huge uncertainties in U.S.-China trade talks and rapeseed supply will get tightened as it is unlikely for China and Canada to settle their issues in a short time. And the speculation on the U.S. soybean weather has yet finished as high temperatures and dry weather may return at any time. Short-term rapeseed meal prices will not slump and may fluctuate at a narrow range, buyers can wait or take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with limited negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 119,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 80,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 22,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market today: it is 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is restricted by a slow recovery in aquaculture and the African swine fever, and the market now has a total inventory of 256,000 tonnes with the import of new products from Peru. Due to such bearish fundamentals, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable, when the operation rate is low and cottonseed price is high. However, the demand is affected by the devastating outbreak of African swine fever in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan and other provine in the south China with the number of live hogs down 5.1% month on month, down 26% year on year according to the data from Ministry of Agriculture; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; and the delivery pace is slow. Besides, today meals on DCE slip, and spot soybean meal partially fall 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to move sideways.
Buyers are suggested to replenish properly in small batches upon low price and be prudent if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
