China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 29, 2019)
I．National stocks
This week (as of July 19th), edible palm oil stock totals 656,700 tonnes at domestic ports, up 2.2% from 642,500 tonnes last week and down 32,500 tonnes or 4.7% from 689,200 tonnes the same period last month, and up 117,800 tonnes or 21.86% from 538,900 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 119,800 tonnes, down 200 tonnes or 0.2% from 120,000 tonnes last week. The edible palm oil stock this week stops declining and increases. This week the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is narrowed a bit. As of this Friday, the spread is 1075 yuan/tonne, down 5 yuan/tonne from 1080 yuan/tonne last week. Besides, oils future trends at home and abroad in the second half of this week are not good, and biodiesel purchase activities are not a lot when the demand is mainly satisfied by a large number of contracts signed previously. Thereby, the palm oil trading is still thin, totally 13500 tonnes this week, down 32600 tonnes or 70.7% from 46100 tonnes last week. However, import dealers are active in palm oil purchase due to the increase of import margins previously. The August arrivals for 24-degree palm oil are predicted to be about 500,000 tonnes, and palm oil stocks later are likely to further rise in a small range.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for July this week is unchanged from last week to settle at 520,000-570,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 400,000-450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate for August this week goes up 50,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 620,000 tonnes (24-degree 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); and the estimate of import volume for September is unchanged from last week to settle at 570,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
