Soybean: The inventory has continued to grow with an expanded increment this week, for the crush has dropped further to 1.50 mln tonnes due to swelling soybean meal inventories and the maintenance outage. On the week as of July 19th, imported soybean inventory is 4,835,700 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 565,300 tonnes by 13.24% from 4,270,400 tonnes last week yet down by 24.75% from 6,426,900 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to climb higher later.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: The inventory has continued to reduce this week for quick delivery, as the trading volume has seen a weekly increment of 81.58% and an year-on-year increment of 126.81% at 1.431 mln tonnes as of this Friday. On the week as of July 19th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 856,900 tonnes, down 56,000 tonnes by 6.13% from 912,900 tonnes last week and down by 30.24% from 1,228,400 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.64 mln tonnes and 1.82 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks soybean meal inventory is predicted to see only a small reduction amid growing output.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts decrease this week. On the week as of July 19th, outstanding contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,243,400 tonnes unfinished, down 206,900 tonnes by 6.00% from 3,450,300 tonnes last week and markedly down by 43.88% from 5,779,600 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
