Today (Jul. 23rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures were lower on Monday as forecasts of cooler weather across the U.S. Midwest eased fears about potential yield losses, and meal futures fluctuate slightly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot bids for soybean meal steadily fluctuate by 10-30 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2,750-2,800 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,800, Shandong 2,770-2,800, Jiangsu 2,750-2,800, Dongguan 2,770-2,800, and Guangxi 2,770-2,800). U.S. soybean futures fluctuate to fall on more favorable weather for crops. And soybean import has already been huge due to improved crush margins, and China will resume U.S. soybean purchase amid somewhat cooling tensions. Meanwhile, the African swine fever is still lingering, with outbreaks reported in Southern and Southwestern regions as well as Hunan and Hubei, so the demand for meals is still in the dark. These will all curb meal prices. But the weather speculation on U.S. soybean has yet finished, and soybean meal inventory has declined by 6% to 850,000 tonnes in better trading last week; thus, the price losses will be restricted from this aspect. Overall, short-term trend will likely follow futures to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can replenish for proper stockpiles on the dips, and remain cautious in chasing up prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it fluctuates by 10-20 yuan at 2,360-2,450 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,430, up 20; and Fujian 2,360). The overall demand for meals remains poor due to the contagious African swine fever, and due to its largely narrowed spread with soybean meal, rapeseed meal has seen its proportion falling to a fresh low in aquatic feed and its position replaced by sunflower meal in poultry feedstuff. Besides, pulp pellet inventory increased by 43% to 160,000 tonnes due to intensive arrivals at ports last week. In the meantime, soybean meal price will have limited upward potential due to huge soybean import later. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal prices will be capped by soybean meal price to snap off gains to fluctuate. But rapeseed supply will probably get tightened later amid rocky relationship between China and Canada, so there will be little space for rapeseed meal price to decline. Overall, short-term prices will probably fluctuate at a narrow range, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make replenishment in small batch.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices stay stable with little negotiating space today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 9,900-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD with 65% protein content, 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 121,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 81,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 22,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market today: it is 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Fair Average Quality SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for Prime SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean Fair Average Quality fishmeal with 65% protein content is 1,360 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,590 USD/tonne. The demand for fishmeal is low from aquaculture and due to the African swine fever, and the market now has a total inventory of 260,000 tonnes with the import of new products from Peru. Due to such bearish fundamentals, fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with slight declines in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable when operation rate keep at a low level; cottonseed price is high; mills are waiting for higher offers. However, cottonseed meal is weighted on when African swine fever continues with recent frequent outbreak in South China, Southwest China, Hunan and Hubei province; the delivery is slow as the substitution of soybean meal for cottonseed meal happens in feed factory amid a narrowed price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate in narrow range. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sideline or take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
