I.Soybean
Price: The imported and distributed soybeans in Tianjin port are not many. According to Bloomberg, US-China trade talks has been suspended by Huawei issue, and Trump added pressure on China again, saying more tariffs could be place on Chinese goods. Moreover, according to USDA latest Sales Report, last week China canceled a 9,825 tonnes US soybean import. US soybeans in the short run will be restricted amid uncertainty of U.S.-China trade relationship, which is supportive of market. However, the traders' delivery pace is slow amid the off season. Add the ample global supply and the price is curbed. The market is mixed and short-term prices likely maintain stable. Buyers should pay attention to news about the trade war.
China's Imported Soybean Weekly Price(RMB/mT)
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Shandong
|
Import, PNW
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, Uruguay
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Import, US GULF
|
Not reported
|
Not reported
|
|
Tianjin
|
Bulk, Brazil
|
Not reported
|
3390
|
|
Import,Kazakhstan
|
Not reported
|
4370
|
|
Import,Russia
|
4150
|
4170
|
-20
|
Import,Myanmar
|
4570
|
‘-
|
|
Crush: As the utilization rate has dropped further for swelling soybean meal inventories and machine maintenance, soybean crush totals 1,505,600 tonnes (meal 1,189,424 tonnes and oil 286,064 tonnes), a reduction of 18,000 tonnes by 1.18% from 1,523,600 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, utilization rate (capacity utilization) is 42.14%, down by 1.53 percentage points from 43.67% last week. The crush is predicted to increase to around 1.64 mln tonnes next week and to 1.82 mln tonnes the following week as the utilization rate will grow with eased soybean meal inventory under quicker delivery.
Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.02 mln tonnes in July at current utilization rate, below the 7.41 mln tonnes in June and 7.55 mln tonnes a year earlier.
As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 67,539,115 tonnes, down 3,427,083 tonnes by 4.83% from 70,966,198 tonnes of the same period last year. In 2019 (as from Jan. 1st, 2019), national soybean crush amounts to 44,387,715 tonnes, down 2,177,76 tonnes by 4.68% from 46,565,478 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2018.
Inventory: The inventory has continued to grow with an expanded increment this week, for the crush has dropped further to 1.50 mln tonnes due to swelling soybean meal inventories and the maintenance outage. On the week as of July 19th, imported soybean inventory is 4,835,700 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 565,300 tonnes by 13.24% from 4,270,400 tonnes last week yet down by 24.75% from 6,426,900 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean import estimate is pegged at a high level of 28 mln tonnes in the third quarter, its inventory is likely to climb higher later.
Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 26 cargoes with 1.678 mln tonnes this week, a total of 71 cargoes with 4.506 mln tonnes for July so far. The import is predicted to be 146 cargoes with 9.416 mln tonnes for July shipment, 9.1 mln tonnes for August, 9.3mln tonnes for September, and 8.8 mln tonnes for October. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.
II.Soybean Meal
Price: This week (July 15-19, 2019), spot soybean meal trend stop declining and rebound. As of this Friday, the price is 2770-2830 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 20-60 yuan/tonne from last week.
China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
Region
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Jilin
|
2,950
|
2,910
|
40
|
North China
|
Tianjin
|
2,830
|
2,780
|
50
|
Hebei
|
2,800
|
2,760
|
40
|
Central China
|
Hubei
|
2,860
|
2,820
|
40
|
Henan
|
2,880
|
2,840
|
40
|
East China
|
Shandong
|
2790-2800
|
2,740
|
50-60
|
Jiangsu
|
2,750
|
2,700
|
50
|
Zhejiang
|
2,770
|
2,700
|
70
|
Shanghai
|
2,770
|
2,700
|
70
|
Fujian
|
2,760
|
2,730
|
30
|
Anhui
|
2,800
|
2,780
|
20
|
South China
|
Guangdong
|
2,790
|
2,720
|
70
|
Guangxi
|
2,800
|
2,730
|
70
|
National average
|
2,788
|
2,735
|
53
|
Inventory: The inventory has continued to reduce this week for quick delivery, as the trading volume has seen a weekly increment of 81.58% and an year-on-year increment of 126.81% at 1.431 mln tonnes as of this Friday. On the week as of July 19th, soybean meal stockpiles in main domestic coastal oil mills total 856,900 tonnes, down 56,000 tonnes by 6.13% from 912,900 tonnes last week and down by 30.24% from 1,228,400 tonnes a year earlier. As the crush will return to around 1.64 mln tonnes and 1.82 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks soybean meal inventory is predicted to see only a small reduction amid growing output.
III.Soybean Oil
Price:This week (July 15-19, 2019), soybean oils mostly experience a mild rise, partially decline with fluctuation. As of this Friday, main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5230-5380 yuan/tonne, mostly up 10-60 yuan/tonne, partially down 10-80 yuan/tonne.
China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (RMB/mT)
|
Region
|
Grade
|
This week
|
Last week
|
Changes
|
Northeast China
|
Dalian,
Liaoning
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
North China
|
Qinhuangdao,
Hebei
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Tianjin
|
GB Grade 1
|
5230-5240
|
5220-5230
|
10
|
East China
|
Rizhao,
Shandong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,280
|
5,280
|
0
|
Xiamen,
Fujian
|
GB Grade 1
|
|
-
|
-
|
Zhangjiagang,
Jiangsu
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,380
|
5,380
|
0
|
Central China
|
Zhengzhou,
Henan
|
GB Grade 1
|
|
-
|
-
|
South China
|
Dongguan,
Guangdong
|
GB Grade 1
|
5,300
|
5,310
|
-10
|
Fangchenggang,
Guangxi
|
GB Grade 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
GB Grade 3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
National average
|
|
5,310
|
5,310
|
0
|
Inventory: Despite a further decline in the utilization rate, soybean oil inventory has slightly increased this week due to slow delivery under dismal demand. On the week as of July 19th, the inventory has totaled 1,459,500 tonnes, up 17,850 tonnes by 1.24% from 1,441,650 tonnes last week, down 14,900 tonnes by 1.01% from 1,474,400 tonnes month-on-month, and down 110,500 tonnes by 7.04% from 1,570,000 tonnes year-on-year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,283,300 tonnes.