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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 25/7/2019

2019-07-25 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,290  3,913  150 -773 3,859 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,217  3,913  150 -846 3,861 
Costal Shandong 5,350  2,810  3,236  3,913  150 -827 3,856 
Jiangsu 5,430  2,780  3,228  3,913  150 -835 3,837 
Guangdong 5,400  2,760  3,206  3,913  150 -857 3,844 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,290  3,759  150 -619 3,664 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,217  3,759  150 -692 3,666 
Costal Shandong 5,350  2,810  3,236  3,759  150 -673 3,661 
Jiangsu 5,430  2,780  3,228  3,759  150 -681 3,642 
Guangdong 5,400  2,760  3,206  3,759  150 -703 3,649 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Aug. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,343  3,147  150  46  2,822 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,270  3,147  150  -27  2,824 
Costal Shandong 5,350  2,810  3,290  3,147  150  -7  2,819 
Jiangsu 5,430  2,780  3,282  3,147  150  -15  2,799 
Guangdong 5,400  2,760  3,260  3,147  150  -37  2,806 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, July shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,236  3,070  150  16  2,859 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,164  3,070  150  -57  2,862 
Costal Shandong 5,350  2,810  3,183  3,070  150  -37  2,857 
Jiangsu 5,430  2,780  3,174  3,070  150  -46  2,839 
Guangdong 5,400  2,760  3,152  3,070  150  -68  2,846 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,263  3,580  150  -467  3,471 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,190  3,580  150  -540  3,473 
Costal Shandong 5,350  2,810  3,210  3,580  150  -520  3,469 
Jiangsu 5,430  2,780  3,201  3,580  150  -529  3,450 
Guangdong 5,400  2,760  3,179  3,580  150  -551  3,457 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,490  3,030  3,302  3,400  160  -258  3,352 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,340  2,880  3,158  3,520  160  -522  3,532 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,330  2,790  3,085  3,540  160  -615  3,559 
Boxing, Shandong 5,320  2,830  3,115  3,560  160  -605  3,586 

Remarks:
1. Domestic soybean cost: soybean purchasing price + freight to the factory (Heilongjiang)
2. Oil extraction rate at 16%, and meal at 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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